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aeris lanos1
September 22

“Medicane” in the Mediterranean Sea – “Teddy” and Likely “Wilfred” Threaten U.S.

2 Weeks Out – Cut Off Low Out East? Minnesota and the western two thirds of the USA are forecast to run milder than average, with a closed low causing clouds and showers (and cooler than normal temperatures) over much of the east. Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday morning, September 17th, 2020: Tropical Depression Sally Sally Weakening. While Sally has quickly weakened over the past 24 hours as the system continues to move inland, it is still producing heavy rain across portions of the Southeast this morning. As of 4 AM CDT, the center of Sally was 50 miles southeast of...

smoke from fires in western US
September 17

Sally Fades – Now There’s “Teddy” – Medicanes – Tracking Nationwide Smoke Plume

Climate refugees? Maybe Bangladesh or the Maldive Islands in the Pacific, but here in the U.S.? As a warming climate makes naturally-occurring fires, floods and hurricanes more intense experts predict a slow-motion migration away from high risk areas in the south and west. A recent story at The New York Times outlines the trends and predictions: s many as 13 million Americans could be forced to move away from submerged coastlines. 28 million Americans may face “mega-fires” as summers heat up, making work outside increasingly difficult. Access to clean, reliable water will be a major theme of the 21st century....

eye of hurricane from air
September 9

Chaos Theory Limits Long-Range Weather Accuracy – Tracking “Paulette” and “Rene”

The Dominance of Chaos. An accurate forecast 4 months into the future? Don’t hold your breath. At the end of the day meteorologists are up against chaos theory, as a story at Mashable explains; here’s an excerpt: “…Yet, there‚Äôs a limit on how far into the future humanity can ever predict the day-to-day weather: Will a storm probably hit my town? Will it be a terrible day for a barbecue? Will driving be too dangerous? The absolute limit on this type of weather prediction is somewhere between two and three weeks, said Falko Judt, a research meteorologist at the National...

September 8

The United States of Weather Extremes: Record Heat, Wildfires, Freak Snows Out West

The United States of Weather Extremes 2020 has been a volatile, jaw-dropping year – and disruption applies to America’s weather. In recent days I’ve witnessed things I’ve never seen before. 121F in the suburbs of Los Angeles. A 5 year drought fueling massive California wildfires, billowing smoke thousands of miles downwind. While the west bakes Denver just dropped 60 degrees in 2 days; from 100F to 30s and snow, in a meteorological blink of an eye. “Paulette” has formed in the Atlantic, the 16th storm and earliest P-name on record. And now there’s Tropical Storm Rene, the earliest R-name on...

September 4

List of Record Hot Summer Cities – Tropics Heat Up – Science Behind Storm Surges and Atmospheric Rivers

Volatile Mid-Month Pattern? I’m seeing a few models with a large closed (“cut-off”) low over the nation’s midsection by mid-September, and confidence levels are low that the pattern envisioned by the GFS model (above) will actually verify. One things is certain: near-record heat will continue to bake much of the southern USA for much of September. Briefing: Issued Tuesday, September 1st, 2020: Atlantic Heating Up Again: Tropical Depression Fifteen. Fifteen formed late yesterday afternoon off the Southeastern United States coast and is sitting about 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras this morning (as of 5 AM ET). The good news...

cumulonimbus pileus
September 4

Crazy Extremes Facing Denver – Did Harsh NWS Language Save Lives with “Laura”?

  Moderately Cool Third Week of September. Temperatures over the northern tier of the USA will be cooler than average 2 weeks out, if you buy the GFS solution above. We’ll see more warm fronts, more 70s and 80s into late September, but while much of the south and west sizzles Minnesotans will be reaching for sweatshirts much of the next 2 weeks. Definition of a Cold Front. I’m sure this has happened before, but I can’t remember anything quite this drastic in recent years; a nearly 65 degree drop in the span of 2-3 days? ECMWF (above) for Denver...

Hurricane Laura ISS
September 3

Dangerous Hurricane Laura Approaches Gulf Coast – Higher Resolution Tornado Simulations

Hurricane Laura Threatens Gulf Coast “The first rule of hurricane coverage is that every broadcast must begin with palm trees bending in the wind” wrote author Carl Hiaasen. True. And frantic TV reporters hunkered down on the beach. Hurricane Laura is forecast to come ashore late tonight, perilously close to Houston. The storm is passing over warm water, jet fuel for hurricanes. It may roar ashore with 115 mph winds and a basketball-hoop-high storm surge of over 10 feet. You can’t blame Houstonians for being paranoid. 3 years ago “Harvey” dropped 60 inches of rain, leaving behind $125 billion in...

hurricane Humberto
September 3

Tracking “Omar” and “Nana” – Will We Run Out of Hurricane Names in 2020?

Like climate change, coronavirus often doesn’t hit home until it…hits home. One of my nieces at a big eastern university caught Covid-19 (she’s fine). My 91 year old mother-in-law, Josephine, also caught the virus and recovered. Her grandkids call her “Nana”, which is ironic. So far this year in the Atlantic we’ve had a Tropical Storm Josephine and a Tropical Storm Nana. 65-70 percent of hurricane season is ahead of us, with only 6 names remaining on the list. At this rate we may have to start over with the Greek alphabet. The last time that happened was 2005, the...

aerisweather-globe-hurricane
August 26

Tropical Storm Isaias Threatens Florida and Carolinas – Baghdad Hits a Record 125F

Tracking “Isaias” “Nature has a myriad of weapons to combat human arrogance” wrote film director Wayne Gerard Trotman. Tell me about it. From Texas-size hurricanes to invisible, microscopic viruses. We delude ourselves into thinking we’re in charge – but nature always bats last. “Isaias” is forecast to remain a tropical storm as it churns up the east coast of Florida; hurricane-force gusts are possible Saturday, with moderate coastal erosion and inland flooding from Florida to the Carolinas. Isaias is the earliest 9th storm on record. This may be an intense hurricane season, made much worse by the pandemic. August: Nearly...

mosquito biting human
August 25

Tropical Trouble Brewing for Florida and the Carolinas

Extended Outlook Calls for More Mosquitoes. “When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do sir?” economist John Maynard Keynes dryly observed. We have the freedom to change our minds. I have more respect for people who change their minds based on new evidence, rather than digging in their heels and cherry-picking data to support an opinion. Based on a wealth of evidence, the climate is warming, and new research shows mosquito season at MSP has grown from 114 days in the 1980s to 120 days in the 2010s. If anyone asks (doubtful) mosquitoes survive best between...