August 13

Difficulties of Predicting Severe Thunderstorms – “Josephine” Forms – La Nina Brewing

Severe Storm Specifics In Advance? Good Luck

Cue the theme from “Mission Impossible”. One of the few challenges greater than predicting how many inches of snow will pile up in YOUR yard is when and where severe storms may bubble up. Once they’ve formed we can track dangerous storms, leveraging a network of 160 “NEXRAD” Doppler radar sites operated by The National Weather Service. New high-resolution models, including NOAA’s HRRR (High-Resolution Rapid Refresh) update every hour at 3km resolution. Meteorologists can give a few hours lead-time, but predicting which towns will be hit hard vs. other towns that experience a garden-variety storm is still beyond the scope of the science.



Say What? The latest GFS guidance for 500mb winds roughly 2 weeks out (low confidence) suggests a more significant push of cool, Canadian air for the northern USA by the end of the month. I want to see a few more runs before I rummage through my closet for a sweatshirt. Not. Ready. Yet.

La Nina Increases Tropical Potential. La Nina (cooling Pacific) patterns often lead to lighter winds over the tropics, increasing the probability that depressions will strengthen into storms and hurricanes.




Using AI and Weather Data to Improve Business Outcomes. I’m looking forward to a (virtual) presentation, sponsored by Minnesota Technology Association on September 23. Here’s an excerpt of a recent press release: “On Sept. 23, MnTech will host Tech Connect, a half-day virtual conference showcasing ways technology is enabling Minnesota’s businesses. The event features more than 50 speakers across industries, describing ways they use technology to better serve customers and grow their businesses. Meteorologist, author and entrepreneur Paul Douglas will speak about how businesses use weather data and AI to improve outcomes. Here’s a preview:


How does climate change affect business operations and profitability?
Douglas:A warmer, wetter climate is sparking more extreme weather outbreaks worldwide, which disrupt operations, logistics, transportation and staffing. An uptick in inland flooding, coastal flooding, extreme heat and wildfires is already impacting insurance rates and corporate reinvestment strategies. Companies of all sizes are gauging climate risk for their specific business footprints and use cases, making the changes necessary to keep staff, vendors and customers safe and ensure a consistent ROI, no matter what Mother Nature throws at us…”

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