November 10

Crazy Weather Extremes Upper Midwest – “Eta” May Take Second Pass at Florida


Plowable. Hard to believe it was in the 70s two days ago. The weather always changes fast at this latitude but…good grief. ECMWF (above two graphics) shows 5-7″ for the metro – there may be a little melting as the snow begins to fall later today, but some spots will wind up with 4-6″. Maps: WeatherBell.



Moderate Pacific Flow Leading Up to Thanksgiving. I see continued troughing in the western USA, suggesting more of a Pacific breeze for Minnesota the week leading up to Thanksgiving, with temperatures are few degrees above average. In spite of today’s snow, I see no extended spells of abnormally cold weather through late November.


A Very Warm Start to November. Dr. Mark Seeley breaks it down in Minnesota WeatherTalk; here’s an excerpt: “After recording mostly cooler than normal temperatures on the first day of the month, temperatures have averaged 12 to 18 degrees F warmer than normal under mostly bright, sunny skies. The expected persistence of these warm temperatures through Sunday, November 8th may produce one of the warmest November weeks in state history, rivaling 1975 and 2016. Many climate stations reported setting new record warm daily maximum temperatures and record warm daily minimum temperatures. On November 3rd over 20 new daily record high temperatures were reported within the long-term state climate network. On the 4th this number rose to over 40 stations, and on November 5 it was over 30 stations…”


Briefing: Issued Monday, November 9th, 2020:

Tropical Storm Eta:

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Eta In The Southeastern Gulf Of Mexico. Around 11 PM last night, Eta made landfall on Lower Matecumbe Key, Florida, and the system continued to move westward through the overnight hours. Gusty winds and heavy rain are still occurring across southern Florida, with over 8” reported in Fort Lauderdale over the past 72 hours. As of 7 AM ET, Eta was located over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, about 55 miles west-northwest of Dry Tortugas, FL, or 80 miles west-northwest of Key West, FL, and moving west at 13 mph. Eta was a strong tropical storm with winds of 65 mph.


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Eta Track. Eta will continue to move westward through the morning, followed by a move west-southwest later today and tonight with a decrease in forward speed. Little movement is then expected tomorrow before it starts to slowly move north Wednesday. As we head late in the week, we should see a northeast movement, and Eta could approach the Big Bend of Florida late this week into the weekend. Some slight strengthening is expected in the next couple of days, and there’s the chance that Eta could reach hurricane strength in the Gulf of Mexico. However, upper level winds should increase mid/late week, which, along with dry air, will allow weakening to occur.


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Tropical Storm Alerts. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in place across portions of Florida this morning, including from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria Island, the Florida Keys, and Lake Okeechobee. Tropical Storm Watches are in place across western Cuba including La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.


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Key West Wind Gusts. Strong winds are expected to continue through the morning hours in Key West, but as Eta continues to move away today those wind gusts should decrease later in the day.


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Heavy Rain And Flooding. Heavy rain will continue to impact portions of southern Florida and the western Caribbean over the next few days. Due to the heavy rain threat, Flood Watches continue to be in place in southern Florida. Here’s a look at the potential rainfall amounts over the next few days according to the National Hurricane Center:

  • Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).
  • Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).
  • Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Storm Surge Concerns. While Storm Surge Watches and Warnings have been cancelled, there is still the potential for a 1-2 foot storm surge from Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including the Florida Keys today.


Other Atlantic Concerns

Other Concerns. Yes, tropical season just continues to roll on in the Atlantic, with the official end of the season not until November 30th. Besides Eta, there are two other areas of concern:

  • A currently non-tropical low several hundred miles southwest of the Azores is becoming better organized this morning. This system could become a tropical or subtropical storm in the next few days, with a 50% chance of doing so in the next two days and 70% in the next five days.
  • A tropical wave is expected to move into the central Caribbean Sea over the next few days with an area of low pressure expected to form. There’s the chance that a tropical depression could form in this area late this week or this weekend. There currently a 50% chance of formation in the next five days.

Vamco In The Western Pacific

Tropical Depression Vamco. We’re also keeping an eye on Vamco which looks to impact portions of the Philippines, including Manila, later this week. Vamco is expected to strengthen into a typhoon with winds of 125 mph by Wednesday evening when the storm will be sitting east of the Philippines. It is expected to weaken as it moves across the country Wednesday Night and Thursday, but it still could have winds of 75 mph by Thursday evening as it sits just west of the Philippines. This storm looks to bring another round of damage in areas recently hit by tropical systems, including Goni. Heavy rain of at least 6-12” could lead to flash flooding, including in Manila.

D.J. Kayser, Meteorologist, Praedictix


What is a “Super-Typhoon” and Why Are They So Dangerous? WIRED.com (paywall) has a good explainer; here’s an excerpt: “…Meteorologically, typhoons and hurricanes are the same phenomenon; it’s just traditional to call them typhoons in the western Pacific or hurricanes in the eastern Pacific or Atlantic. They start as storms that pass over hot surface water, at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit, down to 150 feet deep. These storms suck up water from the ocean’s surface, which evaporates into the air. As they rise, the water vapor condenses to form droplets, releasing more energy, while low pressure beneath the rising air masses brings in a rush of more air. A tropical storm officially turns into a hurricane when these counter­clockwise winds reach 74 miles per hour. Meteorologists applied the “super” designation to Typhoon Goni after it reached wind speeds of 150 miles per hour...”

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