December 1

Statistical Odds of a White Thanksgiving – Stormy Pattern Southern and Eastern USA


Winter Remains On Indefinite Pause

Have you noticed that most disaster movies start out with people ignoring warnings from scientists? I have a respect for science – and faith in something more. God gave us experts.

This Thanksgiving season I’m grateful for family, friends and facts. I don’t take democracy, free speech or freedom of the press for granted.

And a special shout-out to 2020’s biggest heroes: our frontline healthcare workers. They all deserve medals, and our enduring gratitude for being steadfast on the front lines of this pandemic.

Glancing Blows of Chilly Air, But Not Bad for December. Looking out roughly 2 weeks GFS continues to maintain a modified zonal, west-to-east flow, with a milder Pacific influence for much of the west and central USA. The pattern favors storms over the Deep South and East Coast, but no big storms are brewing close to home anytime soon.

Odds of a White Thanksgiving. Data shows 1 in 5 Thanksgiving Days have measurable snow in the Twin Cities. Map credit: climate guru Brian Brettschneider.

Record-Breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Draws To An End. Good riddance. NOAA has highlights and lowlights: “The extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is drawing to a close with a record-breaking 30 named storms and 12 landfalling storms in the continental United States. While the official hurricane season concludes on November 30, tropical storms may continue to develop past that day. NOAA’s seasonal hurricane outlooks accurately predicted a high likelihood of an above-normal season with a strong possibility of it being extremely active. In total, the 2020 season produced 30 named storms (top winds of 39 mph or greater), of which 13 became hurricanes (top winds of 74 mph or greater), including six major hurricanes (top winds of 111 mph or greater). This is the most storms on record, surpassing the 28 from 2005, and the second-highest number of hurricanes on record…”

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