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December 4

Polar Punch Within 2 Weeks? Hurricane Hunters Reflect on Record 2020 Season

It’s Much Too Early To Write Off Winter “Blessed is the season which engages the whole world in a conspiracy of love” wrote 19th century American essayist Hamilton Wright Mabie. Well-worn traditions will look different this year but the love story lives on, undiminished. It runs contrary to every fiber in my being, but this year the greatest gift I can give the people I love most is to keep my distance from them. After a rough and tumble start in October Old Man Winter has been remarkably absent in recent weeks and snow lovers are starting to fret. I...

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December 3

Winter On Hold For Much of USA – NOAA CFSv2: Mild Signal May Linger Into January

Where’s the Snow? According to NOAA NOHRSC 16.9% of the lower 48 states are snow covered. It is strange seeing the Dakotas and so much of Minnesota and Wisconsin snow-free on the 4th day of December. White Christmas Musings. So you’re telling me there’s a chance…? Kudos to the Twin Cities National Weather Service for doing the research and putting the odds of a white Christmas into perspective. Bottom line: past data shows that even with little or no snow on the ground at MSP on December 3 roughly 2 out of 3 of the following Christmas Days were “white”...

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December 2

What La Nina? Milder Than Normal December – 2020 Hurricane Recap

Photo credit: Paul Douglas. December Temperature Anomalies. 4-8F warmer than average this month? That’s what NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 is (consistently) predicting for December across Minnesota, with eye-opening anomalies over 10F for much of Canada. To which I reply, what La Nina? Map credit: NOAA. Top 7 Warmest Minnesota November on Record? That’s the latest, based on data compiled by Dr. Mark Seeley; here’s an excerpt from Minnesota WeatherTalk: “In contrast to October, this November was very much warmer than normal. Most climate stations report an average monthly temperature that ranges from 4 to 6°F above normal. This...

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December 1

Models Predict Mild December for USA – Tornado-Proof Home (?) – Coastal Flooding on the Increase

December Outlook: Climate Prediction Center. Here is the latest temperature and precipitation outlook from NOAA CPC. Looks pretty toasty. December Temperature Anomalies. 4-8F warmer than average this month? That’s what NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 is (consistently) predicting for December across Minnesota, with eye-opening anomalies over 10F for much of Canada. To which I reply, what La Nina? Map credit: NOAA. Operational Winter Storm Severity Index. With the exception of lake effect snow and some snow and icing over Kansas and northern Oklahoma, it looks fairly quiet across the USA. NOAA WPC is making WSSI operational – another step...

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December 1

Statistical Odds of a White Thanksgiving – Stormy Pattern Southern and Eastern USA

Winter Remains On Indefinite Pause Have you noticed that most disaster movies start out with people ignoring warnings from scientists? I have a respect for science – and faith in something more. God gave us experts. This Thanksgiving season I’m grateful for family, friends and facts. I don’t take democracy, free speech or freedom of the press for granted. And a special shout-out to 2020’s biggest heroes: our frontline healthcare workers. They all deserve medals, and our enduring gratitude for being steadfast on the front lines of this pandemic. Glancing Blows of Chilly Air, But Not Bad for December. Looking...