Archives

Illustration: Sarah Grillo, Axios
October 29

Weather Extreme Risk to Degrading US Grid – Study: 12 Million Global Deaths Due to Environmental Risk Annually

Postcard PrettyPete Schenck, Pequot Lakes 6-10 Day Temperature AnomaliesNOAA Looking Colder and Stormier. Considering the sun angle is equivalent to mid-February I can’t say I’m surprised, but the sunny, lukewarm honeymoon appears to be drawing to a close. GFS guidance hints at a stormier pattern for much of the USA within 2 weeks as cold air pushes inexorably southward, setting the stage for a better chance of real cold fronts (and both rain and snow). Duluth National Weather Service Meteorological Set-Up for 1991 Halloween Blizzard. The Duluth office of the National Weather Service has an excellent recap of the jaw-dropping...

File image NOAA Ocean Today
October 28

Fox Weather Channel – Odds of a White Halloween – Remembering 1991 Minnesota Halloween Blizzard

Paul Douglas Extreme Weather Affecting Moving Plans? A recent Redfin.com survey shows nearly half of Americans considering a move are factoring extreme weather events and climate change into their plans. It’s hard to find a spot with no weather-risk, but certain areas are more vulnerable: rising seas and consistently stronger hurricanes for Florida and the Gulf Coast. Bigger fires and more smoke in California and much of the western US. Concerns are growing about water shortages from Las Vegas to Phoenix. Simulations suggest a slow, inexorable northward migration in coming decades. Minnesota may be a net beneficiary of these trends....

Bryce Jones, head of Flash Forest, says drones are “an incredibly practical tool to do things we could never do otherwise.” Flash Forest
October 27

Historical Odds of a White Halloween – U.S. Power Grid Increasingly Unreliable – Fox Weather Channel Details

Brian Brettschneider Low Odds of a White Halloween. Looking at the data only a 1-5% for the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Rochester, but 10-25% of Halloweens have had an inch or more of snow on the ground October 31. This won’t be one of them. Mixed Signals. Confidence levels in the GFS 500mb position and strength are low; consecutive model runs have been contradictory. Yesterday’s solution looked milder – the latest solution shows seasonably chilly air spilling into the second week of November. Source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationNICK MOURTOUPALAS/THE WASHINGTON POST Longer, More Frequent Outages Afflict the U.S. Power...

October 26

Bomb Cyclones and Nor’easters – CO2 Reaches New High in 2020

ECMWF predicted rainfall by Friday morningweatherbell.com Soaking Rain Likely By Wednesday With Canada cooling off rapidly, late October can bring jaw-dropping storms. California went from extreme drought to Biblical flooding in the meteorological blink of an eye: reports of mudslides, flooding, and 5-10 feet of snow in the mountains. Meanwhile a powerful Nor’easter may bring hurricane-force gusts to southern New England later today. I’m counting my blessings, atmospheric and otherwise. Mild(er) Signal Reemerges by Mid-November. We’ll see a few hardier shots of Canadian air the first week of November, but GFS model guidance suggests a return of ridging over the...

October 22

NOAA Winter Preview – Drought Outlook – Climate Risk to National Security?

This seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook map for November 2021 through January 2022 predicts persistent drought across the West, Northern Plains, and the Missouri River Basin. Drought improvement is anticipated in the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the upper Midwest, and Hawaii.NOAA Climate.gov based on NWS CPC data NOAA Winter Outlook: Drier, Warmer South, Wetter North with Return of La Nina. Here is a link to NOAA’s forecast through January, flavored by a brewing La Nina cooling phase in the Pacific Ocean: “Above-average temperatures are favored across the South and most of the eastern U.S. as La Nina climate conditions have emerged...

October 21

Plotting Minutely Precipitation using Chart.js

The AerisWeather API makes a plethora of weather data available. Earlier this summer, we introduced minutely precipitation forecasts, one of our latest enhancements to the conditions endpoint. Today, we will look at an easy way to plot minutely precipitation data – which includes snow and rain – using Chart.js. Getting Started We will need to load three javascript libraries. One is the AerisWeather Javascript SDK, and the other two are for our plotting purposes. Note that in order to set up a Time Cartesian Axis in Chart.js, you will need to load a date library. In this example, we will be...

October 21

NOAA’s Winter Preview – 72 Hours Under a Summer Deadly Heat Dome in Oregon

Pete Schenck December – February Temperature OutlookNOAA December – February Precipitation OutlookNOAA NOAA Winter Outlook: Mild Bias for Much of USA. Signatures of a La Nina are showing up in the winter forecast with warmer than normal temperatures predicted for much of the nation, and colder than average weather forecast for the Pacific Northwest. Wetter/snowier than average weather is predicted for the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes, with drier weather for the Gulf Coast and southwestern states. Stay tuned. 7-Day QPFNOAA Mild Trend To Linger Into Early November? If you believe NOAA’s GFS model it will, in spite of a...

Flooded community from the air. Image via US Coast Guard
October 20

Infrastructure Risk From Severe Flooding – Naming Heat Waves – Implications of La Nina?

Lake Minnetonka at SunsetPaul Douglas Cool-ish. The maps still don’t look like late October for much of the USA. Prevailing winds are whisking the coldest air well north of the USA; we are just experiencing glancing blows of chilly air east of the Rockies, a pattern which may remain largely intact through the end of October. October Rainfall To DatePraedictix October Rainfall Departures. Rainfall this month is running above average for parts of central and northwestern Minnesota into the Red River Valley and Dakotas – while a deficit lingers for much of southern and eastern Minnesota and much of Wisconsin....

Wind turbines against a sunset sky, via Xcel Energy
October 15

Climate Models Hint at Mild Bias Into January – Worst California Drought Since Late 1800s

Pete Schenck Thursday Conditions, 11 am CDTmesonet.org Frigid West, Warm East – Nation Divided Between Clash of Seasons. Capital Weather Gang has a good summary of some of the crazy extremes we’re witnessing around the USA: “An active jet stream is slicing across the center of the country and bringing a wild clash of seasons, with unseasonable warmth in the East and a frigid taste of winter in the West. Parts of the Rockies and western Plains are digging out from feet of snow that fell Tuesday and Wednesday, while a renewed dose of summer spreads over the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast...

October 14

Over 2 Feet of Snow Black Hills – “Lumpy” Hurricane Data – Advantages of “Wet Bulb” Over “Heat Index” to Predict Heat Impacts

Paul Douglas Reflecting On Another Supersized Summer The outlook calls for more cold fronts in the weeks to come. A temperature recession is as inevitable as gravity as longer nights brew up increasingly nippy airmasses to our north. That said, we just had another super-sized summer season. A 6-month boating season, in Minnesota? Yep. Of course, the downside was the worst drought in decades – a big price to pay for more simmering warmth. I’m grateful for a tame autumn, to date. We could easily be butt-deep in snow. On this date in 1820 settlers at Ft. Snelling were digging...