Articles by Paul Douglas

Plowable. Hard to believe it was in the 70s two days ago. The weather always changes fast at this latitude but…good grief. ECMWF (above two graphics) shows 5-7″ for the metro – there may be a little melting as the snow begins to fall later today, but some spots will wind up with 4-6″. Maps: WeatherBell. Moderate Pacific Flow Leading Up to Thanksgiving. I see continued troughing in the western USA, suggesting more of a Pacific breeze for Minnesota the week leading up to Thanksgiving, with temperatures are few degrees above average. In spite of today’s snow, I see no...

What La Nina? ECMWF seasonal climate outlooks predict December through February mean temperatures 2-5F warmer than normal across most of the lower 48; only Alaska predicted to enjoy a colder than average winter. We’ll see. Stormier, Wetter Pattern Returns by mid-November. All signs point to an inevitable buckling of jet stream steering winds, with enough southern moisture and Canadian chill in place for possible rain-ice-snow events within 1-2 weeks. After this week we’re probably due for a rude reversal in our weather fortunes. Briefing: Issued Thursday, November 5th, 2020: Tropical Depression Eta Eta Inland Over Central America. Eta has continued...

  Paddleboarding in November. Not me, no way. I have brave neighbors… (Photo credit: Paul Douglas) Record 74F in the Twin Cities on Wednesday “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” New York Yankee Yogi Berra famously uttered. No kidding. I almost feel bad for the pollsters, with their fancy models and confident projections. Once again they made meteorologists look good, which is hard to do. Predicting the future is hard, a tenuous mix of art and science. The accuracy of your forecast depends on the quality of data you feed into models, which aren’t perfect, just rough...

Colder and Stormier by Mid-Month. That’s what GFS is hinting at; maybe a few significant storms (mixed precipitation?) less than 2 weeks out as a few waves of colder air push south of the border. Category 4 Hurricane Eta Punishes Nicaragua. The New York Times (paywall) has details: “The Category 4 storm threatened much of Central America with winds of up to 140 miles per hour and rainfall that could reach 35 inches in some areas. Forecasters predicted that Hurricane Eta, whose eye began making landfall along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua midafternoon Tuesday, would rapidly lose power as soon...

Second or Third Warmest Election Day on Record for MSP. There’s a pretty good chance the official high will reach 68F, the second warmest November 3 on record in the Twin Cities. Graphic: Twin Cities National Weather Service. Moderately Cold by Mid-November. Jet stream winds buckle within 1-2 weeks with more Canadian than Pacific air infiltrating the USA, pushing any lingering warmth into far southern states. It was a good run whileit lasted, I guess. Super Typhoon Goni Slams into Philippines as Strongest Landfalling Tropical Cyclone on Record. Dr. Jeff Masters has eye-opening statistics about the mega-hurricane that just hit...

Election Day Weather Preview. Most of the USA is forecast to have a quiet, relatively mild Tuesday. The only exceptions: rain for the Pacific Northwest and cold winds and snow showers and flurries across New England. Zonal Flow Spills into Mid-November? GFS guidance is a bit contradictory. The forecast for 500mb winds roughly 2 weeks out shows more of a Pacific influence, keeping temperatures close to average across most of the USA, maybe a few degrees below average for Minnesota as we end out the second week of November. Briefing: Issued Thursday, October 29th, 2020: Tropical Storm Zeta Zeta Moving...

Cooling Off Mid-November. After an unusually mild start to November, GFS guidance shows a return to average or cooler than average by mid-month. Nothing like last week, but jacket weather. Which sounds about right for mid-November. Briefing: Issued Wednesday, October 28th, 2020: Hurricane Zeta Zeta Strengthening. Zeta has been strengthening through the overnight hours, and as of 7 AM CT, Zeta had sustained winds of 90 mph, making it a Category 1 hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend out up to 35 miles from the center with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward to 150 miles. The center of Zeta was located about 265...

Forecast: Full Moon on Halloween. Technically it’s a “Hunter’s Moon”. USA TODAY has details: “Halloween night will feature the moon event of the year. For the first time in decades, there will be a full moon visible across the entire U.S. on Halloween night, Oct. 31. The last time that a full moon was seen in all U.S. time zones on Halloween was 1944, according to the Farmers’ Almanac. The next time we’ll see an equally spooky Halloween full moon is 2039, so plan your werewolf costumes accordingly. The Halloween full moon is also known as a “blue” moon because it’s the...

Frost, Freeze and Flakes? Here We Go “Cold! If the thermometer had been an inch longer we’d have frozen to death” wrote Mark Twain. I’m not suprised or offended temperatures are tumbling. Considering the sun is as high in the sky today as it was back on February 24 we shouldn’t be the least bit surprised Canadian air is rushing south of the border. It’s not an exaggeration to say the next week or so will look and feel more like early November. Wind chill is back, and a light mix of rain and snow can’t be ruled out early...

Limits of Weather Models All weather, like politics, is local. What will happen in my yard, my neighborhood, my hometown? With major media 7-Day Outlooks are tailored for large metropolitan areas, where most people live. It’s not fair, but this is our reality. Weather apps can help to localize current and predicted weather, but they only go so far. Meteorologists try to capture future variations across the entire state, but weather models, no matter how high-resolution, will never capture tiny wobbles in weather from town to town. It’s worth repeating: weather models are pretty good going out 2-4 days. They...