Articles by Paul Douglas

December 18

40″+ Snowfall Amounts New York State – Exceptional Drought – First Arctic Cold Wave Coming

GFS Predicted Temperatures December 23-26NOAA and Tropical Tidbits.com First Arctic Front of the Winter. Subzero temperatures are likely late next week, just in time for Christmas, and I could see chill factors dipping to -30F for about 36 hours before a rapid warming trend the weekend after Christmas. Just a subtle yet blunt reminder that it’s December. Climate Forecast System model (CFS)NOAA Mild Bias To Continue Into Mid-January. NOAA’s CFSv2 forecast from December 18, 2020 through December 17, 2021 predicts overall temperatures some 4-8F warmer than average for Minnesota and the Dakotas. Spasms of numbing air, but milder overall (which...

man shoveling snow outside
December 17

Much of Northeast: More Snow Yesterday Than All of Last Winter

12KM NAM Future RadarNOAA and Tropical Tidbits.com Few Snow Showers Late Friday? Another anemic clipper pushes a band of snow showers across the state late Friday, possibly mixed with a little rain. The Edge of Numb. Moderately cold air lurks just to our north by the end of December, each inevitable Alberta Clipper bringing chunks of that chilly air south of the border. Will a mild, Pacific signal spill into January or are our relatively mild days numbered with a swing to much colder weather as we enter 2021. I suspect January will live up to its reputation. Briefing: Wednesday,...

December 16

Northeast “Snowpocalypse” – Winter Season Severity Index – World’s Highest Weather Station

All sharing options Snowfall Potential Next 36 HoursNOAA and AerisWeather No Winning Snowfall Lotto Anytime Soon Minnesota won’t win the Snow Lotto anytime soon. That distinction goes to Pennsylvania, where up to 30 inches may pile up by Thursday. Over a foot of snow may plaster New York City, far more than the 4.8 inches that fell all last winter. The European model is hinting a few inches north of MSP next Wednesday, ahead of much colder air which will leave us shivering on Christmas, but from the MSP metro on south a white Christmas is still a stretch. Not...

snowy conditions on road
December 15

Near-Blizzard Conditions Possible Mid Atlantic and Northeastern USA

Twin Cities National Weather Service GFS Forecast Pressure and PrecipitationTropical Tidbits Southern Detour to the Storm Track. The 12 NOAA GFS model run sweeps the most significant moisture well south of Minnesota, a trend we’ve witnessed in recent weeks. I see no major deviation from this (dry, relatively mild) pattern until possibly the last few days of December. Then Again… I’ve seen this numerous times in the last few weeks: GFS suggesting a cold snap, only to have a persistent Pacific signal erase any bitter cold by the next model run. Let’s see if there is any consistency to the...

santa flying in front of night moon
December 11

Not-So-White Christmas For Most of USA This Year – Analysis of Record 2020 Hurricane Season

Santa Not Intimidated By A Mild December ”I will honor Christmas in my heart, and try to keep it all the year” wrote Charles Dickens in “A Christmas Carol”. Neither Hanukah nor Christmas has been cancelled, but a blizzard of infection will make this a holiday season unlike anything we’ve ever seen.<p>A friend had a good point. “If there was a blizzard on Christmas Eve most of us would stay home, not push our luck. We’d still celebrate Christmas, while keeping our loved ones safe” he wrote. Yes. Who would have predicted this back in October? The weather is locked...

winter-without-snow
December 10

Searching For Snow: Odds of a White Christmas Drop For Much of USA – Billion Dollar Disasters in 2020

Snow Cover on December 9, 2020NOAA NOHRSC Where’s the Snow? We are heading into mid-December but the latest NOAA snow cover map looks like something you might see in early October. At last report 10.5% of the lower 48 states had snow on the ground, down from 18.3% of the USA on November 9. 10-Day ECMWF Snowfall ForecastWeatherBell Keep Dreaming. At this point, unless there is a major shift in weather patterns (that isn’t yet showing up on the weather models) I’m not sure how we salvage a white Christmas for most of Minnesota. It’s not impossible, but the odds...

Flowing river in winter
December 8

Mild Signal Continues Much of USA – ARkStorm Scenario – Chinese Weather Modification – Mental Health Risks of Wildfire Season

Not Excited About Friday Snow Just Yet. Here is the 12z Monday ECMWF solution, showing a period of light snow or flurries Friday, but the focus on the moisture remaining south and east of Minnesota. Map credit: WSI. Strong Warm Temperature Trend in December. Dr. Mark Seeley connects the dots in the most recent edition of Minnesota WeatherTalk: ” We should not be surprised that December is bringing us warmer than normal temperatures. Since the new millennium (2000) 70 percent of Decembers have been warmer than normal, including the last six consecutive years based on statewide average temperature. This is...

woman-walking-dog-in-snow-header
December 4

Polar Punch Within 2 Weeks? Hurricane Hunters Reflect on Record 2020 Season

It’s Much Too Early To Write Off Winter “Blessed is the season which engages the whole world in a conspiracy of love” wrote 19th century American essayist Hamilton Wright Mabie. Well-worn traditions will look different this year but the love story lives on, undiminished. It runs contrary to every fiber in my being, but this year the greatest gift I can give the people I love most is to keep my distance from them. After a rough and tumble start in October Old Man Winter has been remarkably absent in recent weeks and snow lovers are starting to fret. I...

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December 3

Winter On Hold For Much of USA – NOAA CFSv2: Mild Signal May Linger Into January

Where’s the Snow? According to NOAA NOHRSC 16.9% of the lower 48 states are snow covered. It is strange seeing the Dakotas and so much of Minnesota and Wisconsin snow-free on the 4th day of December. White Christmas Musings. So you’re telling me there’s a chance…? Kudos to the Twin Cities National Weather Service for doing the research and putting the odds of a white Christmas into perspective. Bottom line: past data shows that even with little or no snow on the ground at MSP on December 3 roughly 2 out of 3 of the following Christmas Days were “white”...

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December 2

What La Nina? Milder Than Normal December – 2020 Hurricane Recap

Photo credit: Paul Douglas. December Temperature Anomalies. 4-8F warmer than average this month? That’s what NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 is (consistently) predicting for December across Minnesota, with eye-opening anomalies over 10F for much of Canada. To which I reply, what La Nina? Map credit: NOAA. Top 7 Warmest Minnesota November on Record? That’s the latest, based on data compiled by Dr. Mark Seeley; here’s an excerpt from Minnesota WeatherTalk: “In contrast to October, this November was very much warmer than normal. Most climate stations report an average monthly temperature that ranges from 4 to 6°F above normal. This...