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teddy3-scaled
September 24

“Beta” Floods Houston, “Teddy” Strikes Canada, Zombie-Storm “Paulette” Rises Again

2020: A Disruptive Year For Weather Too “There are two ways to be fooled. One, to believe what isn’t true. The other is to refuse to believe what is true” wrote 19th century Danish philosopher Soren Kierkegaard. The way 2020 is turning out it’s tempting not to believe our eyes or ears some days. Meteorologists are paying attention to a firehose of freakish weather, tracking volcano-like plumes of smoke and ash from western fires. 140 mph wind gusts from an Iowa derecho. Hurricane Teddy hitting Nova Scotia, Canada! And now Paulette, a “zombie storm” that died, then regenerated over the...

September 24

6 Reasons Why You Should Pay for Weather Data

A common question we receive at AerisWeather is “Why would I pay for weather data when I can get it from free sources?” As a leading provider of data-as-a-solution in the weather and environmental data space, we are here to share why “paid” is often your best value option over free or commodity weather sources – there are more benefits than you might think. Data Resolution and Expertise: The most common free sources of weather data like NOAA, Environment Canada, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and other government entities leverage a finite network of measurement hardware primarily located at Airports.  As most...

sunset-Sept-20-2020-Pete-header
September 23

Tracking “Beta”, “Teddy” and Massive Smoke Plumes – Limits of Forest Management in Controlling Wildfires

The Limits of Long Range Forecasting “Paul, please help. My little girl is having an outdoor wedding on October 11. Any idea what the weather will be?” Yes I do. Changeable. It might be easier to predict where the stock market will be on October 11. There is (some) forecast skill going out 1-2 weeks for a specific location. Beyond that it’s mostly hand-waving and ruminating about trends. The reason? Chaos Theory. Over 210 million current observations from weather stations, balloons, satellites, ships and planes provide the raw fuel for weather models that simulate what the atmosphere SHOULD look like...

aeris lanos1
September 22

“Medicane” in the Mediterranean Sea – “Teddy” and Likely “Wilfred” Threaten U.S.

2 Weeks Out – Cut Off Low Out East? Minnesota and the western two thirds of the USA are forecast to run milder than average, with a closed low causing clouds and showers (and cooler than normal temperatures) over much of the east. Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday morning, September 17th, 2020: Tropical Depression Sally Sally Weakening. While Sally has quickly weakened over the past 24 hours as the system continues to move inland, it is still producing heavy rain across portions of the Southeast this morning. As of 4 AM CDT, the center of Sally was 50 miles southeast of...

smoke from fires in western US
September 17

Sally Fades – Now There’s “Teddy” – Medicanes – Tracking Nationwide Smoke Plume

Climate refugees? Maybe Bangladesh or the Maldive Islands in the Pacific, but here in the U.S.? As a warming climate makes naturally-occurring fires, floods and hurricanes more intense experts predict a slow-motion migration away from high risk areas in the south and west. A recent story at The New York Times outlines the trends and predictions: s many as 13 million Americans could be forced to move away from submerged coastlines. 28 million Americans may face “mega-fires” as summers heat up, making work outside increasingly difficult. Access to clean, reliable water will be a major theme of the 21st century....

eye of hurricane from air
September 9

Chaos Theory Limits Long-Range Weather Accuracy – Tracking “Paulette” and “Rene”

The Dominance of Chaos. An accurate forecast 4 months into the future? Don’t hold your breath. At the end of the day meteorologists are up against chaos theory, as a story at Mashable explains; here’s an excerpt: “…Yet, there’s a limit on how far into the future humanity can ever predict the day-to-day weather: Will a storm probably hit my town? Will it be a terrible day for a barbecue? Will driving be too dangerous? The absolute limit on this type of weather prediction is somewhere between two and three weeks, said Falko Judt, a research meteorologist at the National...

September 8

The United States of Weather Extremes: Record Heat, Wildfires, Freak Snows Out West

The United States of Weather Extremes 2020 has been a volatile, jaw-dropping year – and disruption applies to America’s weather. In recent days I’ve witnessed things I’ve never seen before. 121F in the suburbs of Los Angeles. A 5 year drought fueling massive California wildfires, billowing smoke thousands of miles downwind. While the west bakes Denver just dropped 60 degrees in 2 days; from 100F to 30s and snow, in a meteorological blink of an eye. “Paulette” has formed in the Atlantic, the 16th storm and earliest P-name on record. And now there’s Tropical Storm Rene, the earliest R-name on...

September 4

List of Record Hot Summer Cities – Tropics Heat Up – Science Behind Storm Surges and Atmospheric Rivers

Volatile Mid-Month Pattern? I’m seeing a few models with a large closed (“cut-off”) low over the nation’s midsection by mid-September, and confidence levels are low that the pattern envisioned by the GFS model (above) will actually verify. One things is certain: near-record heat will continue to bake much of the southern USA for much of September. Briefing: Issued Tuesday, September 1st, 2020: Atlantic Heating Up Again: Tropical Depression Fifteen. Fifteen formed late yesterday afternoon off the Southeastern United States coast and is sitting about 100 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras this morning (as of 5 AM ET). The good news...

cumulonimbus pileus
September 4

Crazy Extremes Facing Denver – Did Harsh NWS Language Save Lives with “Laura”?

  Moderately Cool Third Week of September. Temperatures over the northern tier of the USA will be cooler than average 2 weeks out, if you buy the GFS solution above. We’ll see more warm fronts, more 70s and 80s into late September, but while much of the south and west sizzles Minnesotans will be reaching for sweatshirts much of the next 2 weeks. Definition of a Cold Front. I’m sure this has happened before, but I can’t remember anything quite this drastic in recent years; a nearly 65 degree drop in the span of 2-3 days? ECMWF (above) for Denver...

Hurricane Laura ISS
September 3

Dangerous Hurricane Laura Approaches Gulf Coast – Higher Resolution Tornado Simulations

Hurricane Laura Threatens Gulf Coast “The first rule of hurricane coverage is that every broadcast must begin with palm trees bending in the wind” wrote author Carl Hiaasen. True. And frantic TV reporters hunkered down on the beach. Hurricane Laura is forecast to come ashore late tonight, perilously close to Houston. The storm is passing over warm water, jet fuel for hurricanes. It may roar ashore with 115 mph winds and a basketball-hoop-high storm surge of over 10 feet. You can’t blame Houstonians for being paranoid. 3 years ago “Harvey” dropped 60 inches of rain, leaving behind $125 billion in...