Tag: aerisweather blog

March 15

Outrageous Snow Amounts Expected Near Denver While Drought Deepens Western Half of USA

NOAA GFS Snowfall by Sunday eveningweatherbell.com Serious Snow. Snow lovers in Denver are giddy. 1 to 3 FEET of snow will pile up this weekend. Wow. Now, about the avalanche threat… A Grudging Warming Trend. With a higher sun angle warmer fronts will be emboldened in the weeks to come, although we all know that spring arrives in starts and stops. Looking out 2 weeks there is evidence of a persistent Pacific flow keeping most of the USA milder than average. Too dry out there….Drought Monitor Briefing: Issued Thursday, March 11th, 2021: Significant Winter Storm Expected. Confidence continues to increase...

Denver snow
March 12

Will La Nina Turbocharge Tornado Season in 2021 – One to Three Feet of Snow Possible Near Denver This Weekend

“Eye of the Storm”. This was one of my radar screens yesterday as tornadic storms were pushing over Northfield, showing a perfectly concentric “rain hole” over Wright county. Kind of odd, but it quickly dawned on me that this was the center of low pressure rippling northeastward, not some quirky inland hurricane sent here to terrify us. Modified Pacific Flow. A few Canadian slaps, sure, but the flow is predicted to be roughly zonal into mid-March, meaning temperatures at or above normal across most of the Lower 48 states. Briefing: Issued Wednesday, March 10th, 2021: Heavy Snow From Wyoming to...

highs-wednesday-3.11-radar
March 11

Flashes of Summer Out East – Hurricane Blind Spot – Is Tornado Alley Shifting?

A Few Cold Slaps. March giveth, and March taketh away. Today’s 2-week forecast of 500mb (18,000 foot) winds valid the evening of March 23 looks colder than yesterday’s simulation. It would be wildly premature to pack away the heavy jackets (or pull out driveway stakes). Global temperature departures from average during February 2021, as compared to 1981-2010.Copernicus Climate Change Service U.S. Sees Coldest February Since 1989 Amid Global Temperature Dip. Capital Weather Gang has details: “…The cold in the U.S., combined with unusually frigid air across much of Eurasia, resulted in global warmth less pronounced compared to recent Februaries, according...

sunset_March_8_2021
March 9

Coldest February Since 1989 – High Resolution Weather Will Power Renewable Energy Sources

NOAA, Twitter Wild Swings. February was the coldest since 1989 for the U.S. – now 60s in early March. In fact, factoring wind chill, today will feel nearly 100 degrees warmer than it did roughly a month ago across much of Minnesota. Incredible. Shifting Gears. We’ll see more cold frontal passages (no kidding) and I expect a few more slushy encounters before daffodils start poking up in April, but looking out two weeks NOAA’s GFS model shows a predominately zonal (west to east) flow, suggesting temperatures slightly above average northern tier of the USA and well above normal over the...

January 29

Atmospheric Rivers – Stratospheric Warming Impacting Polar Vortex – Very Little Ice on Great Lakes

Star Tribune Another Low Ice Year Predicted on Lake Superior, Great Lakes. Star Tribune has an update: “As the sun rose over this corner of Lake Superior on Wednesday morning, the windchill was nearly 30 below. Open water at last disappeared under a thin layer of ice after stubbornly sticking it out through an unseasonably warm January. But just over the horizon, the waves remained. For the second season in a row, Lake Superior and the Great Lakes as a whole are expected to have below-average ice, which could increase shoreline erosion and threaten organisms that depend on ice cover,...

Ice-on-Trees-in-China
January 28

Using Lightning to Track “Thunder-snow” – 480,000 People Killed by Extreme Weather Last 20 Years

Icy Trees in Tangshan, ChinaKent Kruhoeffer Winter Season Snowfall To Datewww.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snowfall_v2/ Will Mild Pacific Signal Continue to Dominate? The 500mb forecast 2 weeks out looks cold, but there are still hints that our pattern may be flavored by the Pacific, a persistent westerly component to steering winds aloft that may take some of the sting out of any polar air. Still too early to speculate about intensity or duration of any bitter cold. Or if it’s even real. CW3E Scripps, Twitter Atmospheric River in California Poses Debris-Flow Threat. The Capital Weather Gang at The Washington Post has perspective on the...

winter_river_NOAA
January 27

12-15″ Snow Reported Omaha to Des Moines – Record 50 Global Weather Disasters in 2020

NOAA On The Cusp of Frigid? Looking out 2 weeks GFS guidance shows polar air pooling over Canada, and all it will take is a series of clippers to drag successive waves of increasingly cold air south of the border, arriving in waves of cold fronts. Briefing: Issued Tuesday morning, January 26th, 2021: Central United States Winter Storm Morning Radar. Snow continues to fall from portions of Iowa into the Great Lakes with our central United States winter storm this morning, with wintry precipitation (including freezing rain) stretching east into portions of the Northeast, including Pennsylvania. A band of at...

frozen-waterfall
January 26

Major Midwestern Snowstorm – Record 50 Separate Global Billion-Dollar Weather Disasters in 2020

David Josephson, WCCO Radio A Relatively Balmy January. Dr. Mark Seeley has details on lingering warmth in this week’s edition of Minnesota WeatherTalk: “…It looks like this January may end up among the 5 warmest in state history based on statewide climate data so far. Through two-thirds of the month temperatures are running from 8 to 17 degrees F above normal. The last ten days of the month will not all be warmer than normal, but a mixture of above and below normal values. This will mean that the average temperature for January in Minnesota may not be as cold...

winter-driveway
January 25

Plowable Snows – Midpoint of Winter – Driveway Deicing Tips

Twin Cities National Weather Service We need a better way to set expectations for winter storms. “How many inches?” doesn’t capture potential impacts from timing and temperature. A lousy inch of snow at 15F can be far worse on highways than 6 inches at 32F. The reason cold storms are more challenging? Salt loses its effectiveness melting snow and ice when the mercury dips below 20F or so. At 32F most freeways will be wet and slushy. At 15F even major highways and interstates will be snow covered and icy. Timing Saturday’s SnowTwin Cities National Weather Service Snow Reaches MSP...

Mild_Winter_in_Lake_Tahoe
January 21

Coldest Days of Winter Not as Cold – Mild Pacific Signal Dominates

ECMWF Snowfall Predictionweatherbell.com NAM Model Snowfall Potential by Sunday Morningpivotalweather.com Dueling Models. The 00z Thursday runs of ECMWF (top) and 12 km NAM (below) show plowable amounts of snow Saturday into Sunday morning, possibly 3-6” of fluff. Pacific Breezes. We will continue to see cheap shots of cold air, but the dominant signal is steering winds howling from the west, allowing relatively mild air to penetrate unusually far inland, a trend that should spill over into early February. Bay Area office of the National Weather Service Fire Season Just Won’t Quit. Record warmth, high winds and lingering drought are fanning...