Tag: aerisweather

January 25

Plowable Snows – Midpoint of Winter – Driveway Deicing Tips

Twin Cities National Weather Service We need a better way to set expectations for winter storms. “How many inches?” doesn’t capture potential impacts from timing and temperature. A lousy inch of snow at 15F can be far worse on highways than 6 inches at 32F. The reason cold storms are more challenging? Salt loses its effectiveness melting snow and ice when the mercury dips below 20F or so. At 32F most freeways will be wet and slushy. At 15F even major highways and interstates will be snow covered and icy. Timing Saturday’s SnowTwin Cities National Weather Service Snow Reaches MSP...

January 21

Coldest Days of Winter Not as Cold – Mild Pacific Signal Dominates

ECMWF Snowfall Predictionweatherbell.com NAM Model Snowfall Potential by Sunday Morningpivotalweather.com Dueling Models. The 00z Thursday runs of ECMWF (top) and 12 km NAM (below) show plowable amounts of snow Saturday into Sunday morning, possibly 3-6” of fluff. Pacific Breezes. We will continue to see cheap shots of cold air, but the dominant signal is steering winds howling from the west, allowing relatively mild air to penetrate unusually far inland, a trend that should spill over into early February. Bay Area office of the National Weather Service Fire Season Just Won’t Quit. Record warmth, high winds and lingering drought are fanning...

snowy mountain side
January 20

With Snow Temperature & Timing As Important as “How Many Inches”. Western Fires and Drought Linger

Paul Douglas Storm Impact? Check Timing and Temperature ”I beseech you Paul, how many inches!” That never gets old, by the way. My favorite meteorology college professor was right. Americans are preoccupied with inches, demanding a level of specificity and precision the science can’t provide. So we give a range of inches (if I say 2-4 inches you’ll probably remember 4) and a much-borrowed snowfall rating scale: nuisance-plowable-crippling. Yesterday was a rude reminder that when temperatures are cold enough, inches don’t matter. A snowy coating of fluff turned roads into skating rinks. Inches are a factor, but so are temperatures...

January 19

Colder, But Hardly Polar – 2020 Tornado and Lightning Numbers Down, But Not Fatalities

“Parhelia”Todd Nelson Probably Not a Polar Winter This Year A couple months ago I went out on a tenuous limb and predicted “half a winter” for Minnesota and the Upper Midwest. Studying the maps and models I stand by my (reckless) outlook. In spite of a La Nina cool phase in the Pacific (which often produces colder winters here) unusually strong jet stream winds are blowing more from Seattle than the Yukon. Bitter air is trapped to our north; small burps of chilly air reaching the U.S. When in doubt, follow the trends. According to NOAA January is the 6th...

snow coming over chair lift
January 18

Parade of Colder Fronts Coming – 2020 Just Behind 2016 for Warmest Year on Record

NOAA The Forecast Calls For Uncertainty ”Being at ease with not knowing is crucial for answers to come to you wrote Eckhart Tolle. We have all been living with uncertainty for nearly a year now, waiting for vaccines and our better angels to return. Predicting weather is the rough equivalent of peeling an infinite onion of uncertainty. We can track what’s happening (now) and weather models, rough approximations of how the atmosphere should behave, are good and getting better. But every storm is different, every wet swirl a unique puzzle to be deciphered. 3 KM NAM Snowfall PredictionNOAA and pivotalweather.com...

January 18

Building 2D and 3D Applications with ArcGIS API for JavaScript and AerisWeather Map Tiles

For developers creating enterprise-grade applications that sit on the cutting edge of geospatial technology, the ArcGIS API for JavaScript offers enhanced functionality over many other mapping solutions. With support for 3D visualization alongside standard 2D mapping features, the ArcGIS API is a versatile and capable tool for advanced mapping techniques. Now you can add the power of AerisWeather map tiles to the ArcGIS API-based application of your choice! In this blog, we’ll walk through how to create a 2D map as well as an interactive globe. Setting Up Establishing basic styles and setting up your document is consistent between each...

January 13

Sliding Into a Snowier, Colder Pattern – Using Models to Track Wildfire Smoke

Weather-Related Mental Health Break It is such a relief talking about the weather these days. Even “bad weather” is a welcome break from pandemics and civil unrest. We are extras in a bad Tom Clancy thriller, one that almost makes me long for the good ‘ol days of 2020. Not really. My late mom was a glass-half- full woman. During of our most difficult times growing up she would say “No storm lasts forever. A rainbow always reappears.” Good news can’t arrive soon enough. 18Z Tuesday ECMWF Snowfall Predictionweatherbell.com ECMWF Snowier Than NOAA Models. NOAA’s various NAM models are hinting...

January 7

Subzero Air Two Weeks Away – Polar Vortex Splitting – Amazing Earth

Image courtesy of Paul Douglas Subzero Air Roughly Two Weeks Away Snowbirds are missing all the fun! While cold weather refugees in Arizona and Florida pick sand out from between their toes, Minnesotans are playing in powder, enjoying 20s and 30s and light winds, with nary a storm in sight. As a rule our coldest days tend to be sunny, and having blue sky overhead is a coping skill for many of us. Character-building attributes may be put to the test in 2 weeks, when the first blistering shot of arctic air reaches Minnesota. The last 7-10 days of January...

snowy and cold outdoors
January 6

Splitting Polar Vortex Has Subzero Implications Northern USA

The American model projection showing the polar vortex shifting southward and elongating across the northeast Atlantic and Northern Europe, extending toward Asia on Jan. 7.earth.nullschool.net The Polar Vortex is Splitting in Two, Which May Lead to Weeks of Wild Winter Weather. Especially on the East Coast and New England, I might add. Capital Weather Gang has a good explainer: “A dramatic spike in temperatures is occurring at high altitudes above the North Pole, where the air is thin and typically frigid. Known as a sudden stratospheric warming event, experts say it’s likely to have potentially significant repercussions for winter weather...

January 5

Arctic Air Roughly 2 Weeks Out – 2020 Highlights – Billion Dollar Disasters Rising

NOAA GFS Model valid 1 am January 17, 2021pivotalweather.com Paul Douglas 2020: Warmer and Drier for Minnesota. Here’s an excerpt of a good climate summary from Dr. Mark Seeley at Minnesota WeatherTalk: “…As we wrap up the year, basically a warmer than normal one and slightly drier than normal one as well, we can look back at the statewide pattern month by month. Overall, 2020 ended up among the top 15 warmest in state history (back to 1895) and was drier than normal ranking about 43rd driest out of 126 years…” Number One for 2020: Record November Warmth.The Minnesota DNR...