Tag: Atlantic Hurricane Season

May 21

Flooding Rains Plague Gulf Coast – NOAA Predicts Above Average Atlantic Hurricane Season – Anniversary of Moore, Oklahoma EF-5 Tornado

Paul Douglas Tracking a Welcome Weekend Hot Front Wednesday evening’s freakish tornado outbreak from Owatonna to Lakeville was a rude reminder that unexpected weather can come out of left field (or Iowa) when you least expect it. Conditions for tornadoes were marginal at best. There were no watches in effect. NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center didn’t have southern Minnesota under a “slight risk” of severe storms. But the atmosphere didn’t seem to care, with enough instability and spin to support a tornadic “supercell” thunderstorm pushing up I-35. Take- aways? We know when the atmosphere is ripe for severe. MOST of the...

August 7

NOAA: “Extremely Active” Tropical Season Likely – August Rainfall Climatology

Pandemic May Be Impacting Forecast Accuracy Meteorology is not an exact science, like economics, foreign policy and dating. Predicting any future state of the atmosphere depends on how well we can capture fluid dynamics within a weather model, and the accuracy and frequency of data powering that model. Think low-octane vs. high-octane fuel. Right now we may be using the cheap stuff. The pandemic has impacted the airlines with fewer flights, and that means less upper-air data flowing into the simulations we rely on to have a prayer of getting the forecast right. Couple that with what’s now predicted to...

Hurricane From Space
July 11

Steps to Take Before a Hurricane Arrives

“Hurricanes have killed more people in the last 50 years than any other natural cataclysm” according to MIT meteorology professor and tropical scientist Kerry Emanuel. I’m an old Eagle Scout, and the motto: “Be Prepared” is as relevant today as ever. Get out in front of risk. Take steps (now) to avoid serious problems (later). That mindset certainly applies to the biggest, wildest, most terrifying storms on the planet. What have I learned tracking these fickle weather beasts over the course of 4 decades? Don’t count on the latest technology or the government to save you. At the end of...