Tag: climate blog

December 23

Unusually Warm Christmas For Much of USA – 2021 Weather Disasters – Perspective on Record December Tornadoes – Odds of White Christmas Shrinking

Finding Christmas Joy In a Viral Blizzard We are having a Covid Christmas this year. A family member visiting for the holidays tested positive, has mild symptoms, and now we are isolating, so as not to potentially infect other members of our family, including our 22-month old grandson. Like so many families we are making the best of troubling events beyond our control. Expect low 40s and a few rain showers today before we cool off Christmas. Pieces of a massive west coast storm will break off and approach Minnesota in the coming days – by the end of next...

December 16

December Tornado Warnings in Minnesota – Limits of Doppler Technology – In Praise of Bathtubs

First Minnesota Tornado Warning on Record During DecemberGR2Analyst – shortly before 7pm yesterday Historic December Severe T-Storm Outbreak Two weeks ago, if you had told me that 5-20” snow falling on a Friday would be followed by a tornado threat 5 days later…in Minnesota, I would have said you’re watching Syfy, the science fiction TV channel, not The Weather Channel. Yesterday was historic, with record warmth, moisture and a severe weather outbreak more typical of mid-May than mid-December. We can eventually analyze how much of this was natural variability vs. another climate signal, but it was an incredible display of...

Image via Katrina Manson of Reuters. Image depict crowds of people on the beach in Freetown, cooling off in the water on a hot day.
November 16

Thanksgiving: Cold/Stormy East – Mild West. NOAA: Warm Signal Lingers Into February

Paul Douglas Outlook: Cool, Quiet (and Mostly Dark) I dare you to go one day without complaining about how early the sun sets. By the way sunset is 4:44pm. 9 hours 32 minutes of daylight. The sun angle in the southern sky is equivalent to January 26. Which makes me extra-happy we’ll enjoy a high near 50F later today, almost 10F above average. November is running 3.4F milder than average, with a whopping 1.2 inches |PART3: of snow at MSP. The last I checked meteorological autumn is the 3rd warmest on record in the Twin Cities, to date. We’ve had...

Bryce Jones, head of Flash Forest, says drones are “an incredibly practical tool to do things we could never do otherwise.” Flash Forest
October 27

Historical Odds of a White Halloween – U.S. Power Grid Increasingly Unreliable – Fox Weather Channel Details

Brian Brettschneider Low Odds of a White Halloween. Looking at the data only a 1-5% for the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Rochester, but 10-25% of Halloweens have had an inch or more of snow on the ground October 31. This won’t be one of them. Mixed Signals. Confidence levels in the GFS 500mb position and strength are low; consecutive model runs have been contradictory. Yesterday’s solution looked milder – the latest solution shows seasonably chilly air spilling into the second week of November. Source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationNICK MOURTOUPALAS/THE WASHINGTON POST Longer, More Frequent Outages Afflict the U.S. Power...

October 22

NOAA Winter Preview – Drought Outlook – Climate Risk to National Security?

This seasonal U.S. Drought Outlook map for November 2021 through January 2022 predicts persistent drought across the West, Northern Plains, and the Missouri River Basin. Drought improvement is anticipated in the Pacific Northwest, northern California, the upper Midwest, and Hawaii.NOAA Climate.gov based on NWS CPC data NOAA Winter Outlook: Drier, Warmer South, Wetter North with Return of La Nina. Here is a link to NOAA’s forecast through January, flavored by a brewing La Nina cooling phase in the Pacific Ocean: “Above-average temperatures are favored across the South and most of the eastern U.S. as La Nina climate conditions have emerged...

October 14

Over 2 Feet of Snow Black Hills – “Lumpy” Hurricane Data – Advantages of “Wet Bulb” Over “Heat Index” to Predict Heat Impacts

Paul Douglas Reflecting On Another Supersized Summer The outlook calls for more cold fronts in the weeks to come. A temperature recession is as inevitable as gravity as longer nights brew up increasingly nippy airmasses to our north. That said, we just had another super-sized summer season. A 6-month boating season, in Minnesota? Yep. Of course, the downside was the worst drought in decades – a big price to pay for more simmering warmth. I’m grateful for a tame autumn, to date. We could easily be butt-deep in snow. On this date in 1820 settlers at Ft. Snelling were digging...

Entrance gate for University of Minnesota, with a red sign and gold lettering.
September 28

Summer Warmth Lingers – New Study: Today’s Kids Will Experience Three Times More Climate Disasters Than Their Grandparents

Paul Douglas A Taste of Autumn Into Thursday ”80s in late September. Paul, is this a symptom of a warming planet?” Yes and no. Most of this is natural weather variability, amplified by the warming signal we see all around us. Warmer background temperatures (atmosphere and oceans) are flavoring all weather now – today’s rerun of August may be a few degrees warmer than it would be otherwise, in a world where CO2 levels hadn’t doubled since the mid-1800s. Fickle winters, wetter springs (this year notwithstanding) and longer, milder autumns seem to be a trend. Minnesota DNR Low Lake Levels...