Tag: climate change blog

January 26

Weather Models are Guides, Not Gospel – Satellites Have Revolutionized Study of Volcanoes

Paul Douglas Polar Breeze Brings Stiff Winds Today The Capital of Cold. MinnesoCold. Land of 10,000 Dead Batteries. We hold up frostbitten fingers in a courageously-reckless display of bitter defiance. We will NOT be swayed by polar pain! Well, maybe a southern vacation or two. Our coldest days tend to be sunny, which helps me weather negative numbers. Subzero + cloudy = Icy Hellscape. Thank goodness for that. Snowfall for the winter at MSP stands at 33.2”, or 5.5” above average. Snowfall in the Red River valley is almost a foot above average. Good news for snow-lovers and the rest...

January 25

How 2020 Covid Lockdowns May Have Decreased Lightning Strikes – Wind Power Pulling Ahead of Solar

NOAA GFS Temperatures for MSPweatherbell.com Too Cold To Snow (Much) Anytime Soon ”It’s too cold to snow!” Well, sort of. There is some scientific validity to that old proverb. Too cold to snow (much). Of course it can snow at any temperature colder than 32F, but when it’s subzero the main storm track is shoved too far south. Storms thrive along the contrast, the boundary, between warm and cold. We can still pick up scrawny little clippers capable of wind- whipped powder, but the big, sloppy, moisture-rich one-foot-plus storms don’t have a chance. As temperatures mellow a bit, which should,...

January 21

Texas Grid Concerns – Storm Surge Flood Potential in Tampa Bay – Insurers Can’t Adequately Price Wildfire Risk in California

Total (ECMWF) Snowfall by Midday Monday after 3 separate Alberta Clippersweatherbell.com A Triple-Header of Alberta Clippers Coming ”It’s so cold we chopped up the old piano for firewood. We only got 2 chords.” Sorry. After a mild fall and very weird December, Minnesota got its Cold Weather Boasting Rights back. More subzero fun is likely next week, but I do see some moderation later next week into early February. An average winter (if there is such a thing) brings 23 subzero nights at MSP. This morning was the 10th subzero night, to date. In spite of this cold stretch, we...

January 20

Cold Weather Tales – Southern Hemisphere Sizzles – Preparing for Climate Change’s Immediate Impacts

My Father’s Advice: Embrace The Cold I am continually amazed by my 91-year old father, who came of age in Germany at the end of WWII. We’ve recorded hundreds of radio interviews and recently he surprised me with a story I hadn’t heard before. Growing up there was no TV, radio was mostly Nazi propaganda. During winter all they had was sport. He walked or rode his bike 5 miles to school and for fun his friends played ice hockey on a nearby lake. They encouraged the “larger boys” to head out on the ice, and if it held they...

January 7

Hints of a Late January Polar Vortex Signature – Dangers of Leaving Weather Predictions to AI – 40% of US Counties Impacted by Climate-Fueled Weather Extremes in 2021

Tracking a Variety of Cold (and Colder) Fronts Hi, my name is Paul. Hobbies include napping, tinkering with the Doppler – and tracking cold fronts. Big fronts. Little fronts. Sloppy little dribbles of chilly air and full-frontal Siberian Assaults. In defense of cold fronts: they insulate us from some of the worst storms on Earth (hurricanes, I’m looking at you). We get our fair share of weather extremes, but I’m enjoying a lack of yard work and no allergies this month. Our coldest days tend to be sunny, which helps, at least a little. After a numbing start, the mercury...

January 4

ECMWF Top Weather Model – Hurricanes Trending Farther North – Can We Build a Tornado-Proof Home?

Verification of forecast accuracy at around 15,000 feet up from the European, U.S. Model (GFS) and the Canadian Model.Dr. Ryan Maue “Dad, check YouTube for a solution first. Chances are there’s a video that explains what to do.” My boys were right about that one. No matter what the task at hand is, it’s helpful to have the right tools. Meteorologist rely on weather models, but the trick is finding the right blend of model solutions for the most accuracy and highest confidence. Personally, I look at as many models as possible, but when push comes to shove the weather...

December 14

More Severe Storms? NOAA: Shift in White Christmas Odds – How Strong is Climate Signal in Recent Tornado Super-Outbreak?

Marginal Severe T-storm Risk WednesdayNOAA SPC Marginal Severe T-storm Risk Wednesday My Winter Coping Skills: 1). Proper clothing. 2). “Yak Trax” (chains that slip over your boots to avoid sliding down the hill). 3). AWD (not optional at this latitude). 4). At least one warm weather getaway in February, if possible and 5). Calendar: Winter Solstice is 1 week away. On Christmas Day MSP picks up an additional minute of daylight. That’s a psychological turning point for me. A quiet Tuesday gives way to a strange temperature spike Wednesday with 50s, rain – even a stray T-storm late in the...

December 10

Significant Snow Upper Midwest – Power Grid Needs Upgrades – Hurricane Trends in a Warming World

Twin Cities National Weather Service First Plowable Snow for MSP Metro We have a segment on our WCCO Radio show called “weather therapy”, which seems appropriate today. I am a meteorologist and also a part time pseudo- psychologist. “It’s ‘gonna be fine!” “It’s just frozen water!” “It’ll melt!” The first snowstorm of the season conjures up feelings of euphoria and dread. I’m pro-snow, but not when I’m stuck in traffic. I get it. Snow intensity increases this afternoon and the drive home may be a white-knuckle affair. The axis of heaviest snow keeps shifting north and south, but it appears...

The black box will be built in what the developers say is an extremely geologically stable location in Tasmania. earthsblackbox
December 9

Significant Snow Brewing Upper Midwest – Hurricane Trends – Clean Energy Revolution Will Be Weather-Optimized

ECMWF Guidance Through Saturday Eveningweatherbell.com Plowable Snow Friday – 50s Next Week? Talk about weird weather gyrations. Monday morning we woke up to a wind chill of -16F in the metro. Models are hinting at 50s next week, a week before the Winter Solstice. Clickbait? Weather hype? Perhaps. We will have snow piles, which will put the brakes on how warm it can get. The sun angle is about as low as it ever gets. Caveats aside, a nice (?) warming trend is likely by midweek; possibly 20-25F above average. But first we have to focus on a storm about...

Sunset over a lake. Beach chairs line the waterfront, while the surface of the lake shows a number of boats.
December 7

Record Warmth for Much of USA by Mid-December; 4th Costliest Hurricane Season on Record

NOAA CPC Pacific Domination. Brief spasms of cold air, but longer spells of milder, Pacific-moderated air. That’s was the story during the 4th warmest meteorological autumn on record, a trend which may reemerge by mid-December, if you believe GFS guidance. Hurricane Ida: August 29, 2021 FileAerisWeather This Year’s Hurricane Season Was The 4th Most Expensive on Record. Marketplace has details: “The 2021 hurricane season officially ended this week. It was the second year in a row that the number of named Atlantic storms exhausted the list of storm names, and the fourth most expensive hurricane season on record. As far...