Tag: climate change

July 2

Expanding Drought – Keeping an Eye on “Elsa” – Why Many US Cities Weren’t Engineered for Extreme Heat

On The Cusp of Broiling. A full blown heat wave continues for most of the USA into mid-July, which isn’t shocking, considering the next 1-3 weeks is the hottest of the year for most of America, on average. It still appears the core of the heat may remain just south of Minnesota, but this is a low-confidence peek over the horizon. Sunniest June for MSP Since 1988Minnesota State Climatology Office Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday, July 1st, 2021: Elsa Has Formed. The system we mentioned in yesterdays briefing out in the Atlantic has continued to develop over the past 24 hours,...

Miami sunshine
June 29

Historic Heat Grips Northwest – Deepening Drought Grips West – Predicting (Rare) Inland Hurricane Intensification

8-14 Day Temperature AnomaliesNOAA CPC Warm Bias Next Week. NOAA’s climate models continue to show warmer than average temperatures next week from the west coast into the northern tier of the U.S. Medium Rare. That goes for northern tier states with 80s and 90s in mid-June. The southern two thirds of America will be well done within 2 week with 90s and 100s. Paul Douglas Estimating the Number of Excess Heat Deaths Attributable to Heat. Environmental Epidemiology has some jaw-dropping results from a 2020 study: “…We replicated the approach from a large, international study to estimate temperature-mortality associations in 297...

June 4

Western Heat Wave Expands North and East – Most Critical Weather Forecast of WWII

NOAA The First Heat Wave of Summer is Here Men will sweat. Women will glow. Dogs will pant. Cats won’t care. An antiperspirant airmass pushes into Minnesota on a gusty, blast-furnace breeze, pushing the mercury into the mid to upper 90s the next few days. That’s 120-140 degrees warmer than it was just 4 months ago, during The February of Our Discontent. All-time temperature records will be set. Today’s record at MSP is 96F (possible) but tomorrow’s record high on 92 will be broken by lunchtime. I would not be surprised to see 100-degree heat north and west of the...

A view of the ExxonMobil Baton Rouge Refinery as seen from the surrounding neighborhood in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, U.S., May 15, 2021. Picture taken May 15, 2021. REUTERS/Kathleen Flynn
June 2

Amazon Pitching In for Hurricane Season – Derecho Season – Summer Climate Trends

Simmering, Sizzling Weekend Heat Spike ”It’s not the heat, it’s the humility.” Close enough for a meteorologist. On Twitter Thomas Braun reminded me that we are the Florida of Canada. Good point. I’ve often wondered if Canadians complain about “hot, American air” this time of year? A notable heat spike is on the way. Friday and Saturday look like the hottest days in sight. Mid 90s will be commonplace; record territory for many cities across the Upper Midwest. International Falls saw 35F and flurries last Wednesday. On Saturday the daytime high at INL is forecast to be a blazing 98F....

May 28

Hurricane Preparedness 101 – Using Drones and Electricity to Make it Rain?

Toasty. Long-range (GFS) guidance for the evening of June 10, low-confidence guidance, suggests sizzling heat for much of the nation, but a developing Omega Block may keep the Pacific Northwest and New England cool and showery. Hurricane Hunter Lockheed WC-130JU.S. Air Force Hurricane 2021: Medical Advice for the Storm, Evacuation and Pandemic. Here is an excerpt of useful advice for people living in Hurricane Alley, courtesy of Tampa Bay Times: “…Evacuation is the pinnacle of hurricane preparedness. Ask yourself the important questions such as: where are you going to go and how are you going to get there? Having options...

May 25

June Preview – Off-Grid, Climate-Ready Homes – Are Tornado Warnings Still Improving?

Brad Winger Recap of Last Wednesday’s Freakish Tornado Outbreak Far South Metro. Here’s an update from the Twin Cities National Weather Service: “Several low-topped supercells developed along a warm front across Southern Minnesota Wednesday evening, May 19, 2021. Preliminary reports indicate these storms produced 7 short-lived tornadoes across southern Minnesota. Information on the tornadoes is being gathered, and EF-scale ratings and other statistics will be determined once the information is evaluated. This was a marginal CAPE, marginal wind shear environment with low cloud bases. A strengthening low-level jet led to an increase in low-level wind shear. This was able to...

May 20

Simple Ways to Lower Weather Risk – Tornadoes South of Minneapolis – Flooding Rains Plague Gulf Coast

August 10, 2020Paul Douglas Simple Ways To Lower Weather Risk Somewhere between the “Nanny State” and “Every Man For Himself” is personal responsibility. When it comes to weather threats don’t count on the government or the media to save you. A healthy respect for weather goes a long way. Like going to the basement during a tornado warning. Investing in a $25 NOAA Weather Radio, the only thing that may wake you up at 3am if a tornado is approaching your house. Avoiding lakes, pools and beaches when thunder is audible. Staying hydrated during summer heat. Sunscreen to avoid skin...

May 20

Epic Flooding Hits Louisiana – Lightning Tips – “Mr. Tornado” – EF5 Tornado Drought

NOAA A Very Healthy Respect For Lightning ”Thunder is good, thunder is impressive; but it is lightning that does all the work” wrote Mark Twain. Earth is giant battery, lightning strikes the ground 44 times per second. That equates to 3 million flashes every day. Sometimes people get in the way. Only 10 percent of lightning victims perish – the rest suffer from lifelong neurological problems. There are steps you can take to lower your risk. The “30-30 Rule” comes to mind. If you can count less than 30 seconds between a flash of lightning and bang of thunder, head...

May 13

Penn State: Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes in 2021 – Is Tornado Alley Shifting – Deepening Drought Western U.S.

Severe Threat Increases by Late May. A series of cool frontal passages predicted by NOAA’s GFS model may increase the threat of a few rough T-storms the last week of May with highs in the 70s to near 80F – whicle significant heat stretches from Texas to New England. Severe ClearCSPP GeoSphere 2021 Minnesota Fishing Opener Historical Facts. The Minnesota DNR always does a great job putting weather into context. No ice or flurries for the Opener this year: “Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996,2004), and sub-freezing conditions have even affected Minneapolis...

Fire by the lake
May 12

Limping Into Summer – Deepening Drought Western USA – New Normals – 25th Anniversary of “Twister”, the Movie

Little fire, meet big fire.Paul Douglas It’s May, As In It MAY Warm Up It’s May. As in it MAY be nice. Or it MAY snow a little. Or Flood. Or tornado. May is manic and momentous, a meteorological gateway drug to summer. I’m a summer guy, but there is something to be said for May, before the bugs, jungle-like humidity, sputtering thunderstorms and beachball-size hail. A prologue to summer: a dash of warmth, without all the unpleasant side effects. Mostly-Dry, Mostly-Average Fishing Opener. Although a stray shower can’t be ruled out Saturday, Sunday looks like the wetter day with...