Tag: climate change

May 13

Penn State: Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes in 2021 – Is Tornado Alley Shifting – Deepening Drought Western U.S.

Severe Threat Increases by Late May. A series of cool frontal passages predicted by NOAA’s GFS model may increase the threat of a few rough T-storms the last week of May with highs in the 70s to near 80F – whicle significant heat stretches from Texas to New England. Severe ClearCSPP GeoSphere 2021 Minnesota Fishing Opener Historical Facts. The Minnesota DNR always does a great job putting weather into context. No ice or flurries for the Opener this year: “Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996,2004), and sub-freezing conditions have even affected Minneapolis...

Fire by the lake
May 12

Limping Into Summer – Deepening Drought Western USA – New Normals – 25th Anniversary of “Twister”, the Movie

Little fire, meet big fire.Paul Douglas It’s May, As In It MAY Warm Up It’s May. As in it MAY be nice. Or it MAY snow a little. Or Flood. Or tornado. May is manic and momentous, a meteorological gateway drug to summer. I’m a summer guy, but there is something to be said for May, before the bugs, jungle-like humidity, sputtering thunderstorms and beachball-size hail. A prologue to summer: a dash of warmth, without all the unpleasant side effects. Mostly-Dry, Mostly-Average Fishing Opener. Although a stray shower can’t be ruled out Saturday, Sunday looks like the wetter day with...

Maersk line
May 10

Climate Volatility and Weather Extremes Threaten the World’s Shipping Routes

Feature Image credit: Maersk and Wikipedia. “The sea, once it casts its spell, holds one in its net of wonder forever.” wrote explorer Jacques Cousteau. The world’s oceans are a wonder indeed, but rising tides, increasingly powerful storms and wind-whipped waves pose new risks for the ships that power the world’s economies. An estimated 80% of the world’s commerce arrives by ship, an estimated 50,000 merchant ships registered in nearly 150 countries. Tracking changes in weather for optimal routing and storm-avoidance has never been more mission-critical to keep the global economy humming along. Maritime Transport Operators increasingly rely on sophisticated...

May 3

What is a “Mesocyclone”? Lingering Confusion Over “Watches” vs. “Warnings” – Flood Risk Impact on Home Values

Header Image: Docks In By Late April?Paul Douglas Summer Heat Building Gulf Coast. Looking out 2 weeks GFS guidance shows a series of annoyingly persistent cool fronts impacting the northern tier of the USA, while the start of what looks like an early summer heatwave is taking shape over the southern U.S. 8th Cloudiest April Since 1963 at MSP.Minnesota State Climatology Office “Mescocyclone”NOAA What is a Mesocyclone? Not your generic, garden-variety thundershower. Meteorologist Brad Panovich at WCNC.com explains: “…A mesocyclone is not something you hear all the time, but when your local Meteorologist says it, that likely means there is...

Hurricane Hannah
April 29

Remembering 2011 Tornado Super Outbreak – Flood Risk Impact on Home Values – Drought Deepens Western U.S.

August 10, 2020 File ImagePaul Douglas In Defense of Summer Thunderstorms During thunderstorm season I still stare up at the sky with 5th grade wide-eyed wonder. During the day towering cumulonimbus castles charge across the sky. At night the lightning can resemble a Stephen King novel: giant, mutant alien fireflies hovering nearby. I never get over that. If we didn’t experience thunderstorms Minnesota’s climate would be similar to New Mexico. Precious little would grow here. If you hear thunder there’s lightning somewhere nearby. Keep in mind ANY thunderstorm is potentially dangerous. 1 in 10 will become severe, fewer than 1...

April 21

Tracking 30-Year Climate Average Trends – NOAA: Hot Summer – Debunking Siren Myths

NOAA Climate.gov NOAA Climate.gov Tracking the Trends. NOAA will be shortly releasing (formally) the new 1991-2020 average weather data for the USA. The graphic above shows how much of the USA is trending not only warmer, but wetter over time. The “averages” are reacting to a warming Earth. Looking Warmer. The transition to summer is always a rocky road, but GFS guidance is showing a stronger warm signal for the first week of May as a ridge of high pressure builds over the central U.S. – an “Omega Block” keeping the west and New England unseasonably cool. On March 25,...

April 20

Who Has Seen “Tornado Emergencies” – Outlook: ENSO Neutral – What is “Probability of Precipitation”?

Ethan Sacoransky, Twitter Snowfall Trends. The latest (1991-2020) 30-year climate averages show an apparent increase in snowfall across New England (fueled by a consistently warmer, wetter coastal storms?) with a decrease in snowfall from the Plains into the southwestern USA.   Relatively Cool Start to May? Confidence levels are low this far out (they always are) but GFS guidance suggests a lingering closed low over the Great Lakes 2 weeks out, capable of keeping Minnesota under the influence of a north breeze the first week of May. ENSO PredictionsPhilip Klotzbach, Twitter U.S. Tornado EmergenciesBrady Walker, Twitter Praedictix Tornado Safety Tips....

April 15

Tracking Volcanic SO2, Power Outages and a Potentially Shifting “Tornado Country”

June 17, 2010 near Albert Lea, MinnesotaMeteorologist Aaron Shaffer Tornado Alley? More Like “Tornado Country” Data suggests “Tornado Alley” is shifting south and east over time, with more severe, long-track tornadoes hitting the Mid South (Little Rock to Birmingham) in recent years. A symptom of climate change? The honest answer: we’re not sure yet. Tornado Alley should be renamed “Tornado Country” because twisters are fairly commonplace east of the Rockies. In 2010 a total of 145 tornadoes struck Minnesota, the most in the nation that year. Details on the June 17, 2010 super-outbreak here. Severe damage was reported from Wadena...

April 13

Colorado State: 2021 Hurricane Season Will Be Busy – NOAA: CO2 Levels Now Highest in 3.6 Million Years

Mellowing Pattern by Late April. The GFS model suggests a relatively benign pattern within a couple of weeks, with an active southern branch of the jet stream igniting frequent severe storm outbreaks over the southern USA, but relatively mild weather over the central USA. Philip Klotzbach, Twitter Colorado State University: Busier Than Average Hurricane Season. Here’s an excerpt from CSU’s press release: “We anticipate that the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions may transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface...