Tag: Climatology

April 20

Who Has Seen “Tornado Emergencies” – Outlook: ENSO Neutral – What is “Probability of Precipitation”?

Ethan Sacoransky, Twitter Snowfall Trends. The latest (1991-2020) 30-year climate averages show an apparent increase in snowfall across New England (fueled by a consistently warmer, wetter coastal storms?) with a decrease in snowfall from the Plains into the southwestern USA.   Relatively Cool Start to May? Confidence levels are low this far out (they always are) but GFS guidance suggests a lingering closed low over the Great Lakes 2 weeks out, capable of keeping Minnesota under the influence of a north breeze the first week of May. ENSO PredictionsPhilip Klotzbach, Twitter U.S. Tornado EmergenciesBrady Walker, Twitter Praedictix Tornado Safety Tips....

storm-derecho_plains
August 12

August 11: Derecho Climatology – Growing Risk of “Josephine”?

What Exactly Is a Derecho, Paul? Tracking CBs on WSR-88D Doppler? ECMWF, AWIPS, now derecho? Meteorologists LOVE to toss around funky terms. The derecho that blasted Iowa with 115 mph wind gusts Monday tracked 750 miles, from North Dakota to Indiana. This sprawling boomerang-shaped line of fast moving storms produced extensive straight-line wind damage, comparable to an EF-1 tornado. Derechos are rare, but climatology from SPC (sorry, the Storm Prediction Center) suggests parts of central Minnesota see a derecho every year. Hurricane-force winds, but only lasting for 30 to to 45 minutes. Yikes. What is a Derecho? Dr. Marshall Shepherd...

tropical-storm-NOAA
August 7

NOAA: “Extremely Active” Tropical Season Likely – August Rainfall Climatology

Pandemic May Be Impacting Forecast Accuracy Meteorology is not an exact science, like economics, foreign policy and dating. Predicting any future state of the atmosphere depends on how well we can capture fluid dynamics within a weather model, and the accuracy and frequency of data powering that model. Think low-octane vs. high-octane fuel. Right now we may be using the cheap stuff. The pandemic has impacted the airlines with fewer flights, and that means less upper-air data flowing into the simulations we rely on to have a prayer of getting the forecast right. Couple that with what’s now predicted to...