Tag: forest management

September 23

Tracking “Beta”, “Teddy” and Massive Smoke Plumes – Limits of Forest Management in Controlling Wildfires

The Limits of Long Range Forecasting “Paul, please help. My little girl is having an outdoor wedding on October 11. Any idea what the weather will be?” Yes I do. Changeable. It might be easier to predict where the stock market will be on October 11. There is (some) forecast skill going out 1-2 weeks for a specific location. Beyond that it’s mostly hand-waving and ruminating about trends. The reason? Chaos Theory. Over 210 million current observations from weather stations, balloons, satellites, ships and planes provide the raw fuel for weather models that simulate what the atmosphere SHOULD look like...