Tag: hurricane ida

Exxon station damaged by Hurricane Ida by John Taggart for The New York Times
September 21

Consensus of Climate Models Predicts Mild Bias Into December

  A Handful of Cooler Fronts In Sight – Mild Bias into December? The only predictable thing is change. our weather patterns are changing, with longer growing seasons and fickle winters with brief, concentrated polar blasts. Wets are wetter and dries are trending drier. I am cautiously optimistic the pattern that brought us a hot and dusty summer is finally easing. But pulling out of the drought will take months, not weeks or days. Think dimmer switch, not on-off. NOAA’s climate models show a mild bias lingering into December, and I have every reason to believe Minnesotans will enjoy a...

Dixie Fire damage - Noah Berger, AP
September 9

NOAA Climate Models Predict Milder Autumn – Tracking Fall Warming Trends Over the Years

Septembers Tend To Be Quiet in Minnesota Ah, September. The biggest weather-related questions are: 1). When will we check out a kaleidoscope of dazzling fall color? and 2). Shorts or jackets? June brides should consider the month of September, when Mother Nature is (usually) on her best behavior. This summer we all got a front row seat to the New Normal: wilting drought, fire and smoke from Minnesota westward to the Pacific. Tornadoes in unlikely places (New Jersey) and epic floods from the Gulf Coast to the East Coast. I’m hoping we all get a nice, long break before frozen...

Earth from Space via NASA ISS
September 8

Europe Experiences Warmest Summer on Record – How Climate Warming Super-Sized “Ida” – 1 in 3 Americans Experienced a Climate Disaster This Summer

Paul Douglas In Praise Of Our Favorite Teachers We are the sum of the people we’ve met and the experiences we have had. I owe my meteorology career to weather merit badge in the Boy Scouts, a tropical storm that flooded the home I grew up in, and a series of remarkable teachers. I remember their names, faces and continuous encouragement. Mr. Batzer and Mr. Danner were science teachers who turned the weather unit into an event. Mrs. Eisenhart was an advanced placement English teacher who admonished me to use “action words”. As we start the new school year a...

High Water sign in flooded street, courtesy of NOAA
September 3

Ida’s Legacy: Historic Flood and Kansas-Size Tornadoes Paralyze Northeastern US

MN Drought Eases Slightly From Last WeekUS Drought Monitor Weather Extremes Trending More Extreme I’ve been tracking weather systems for 45 years, but nothing has prepared me for 2021’s dueling weather disasters. Our weather models have consistently underestimated the intensity of drought, fires and eastern floods. Why? Climate-warming greenhouse gases have doubled since preindustrial times, and these man-made gases are flavoring all weather now. Are too many people living in vulnerable areas? Yes. But Wednesday’s 1-in-500 year flooding from Philly to New York City and Texas-size tornadoes in New Jersey are more symptoms of our new reality. Flashes of Lukewarm....

August 31

Soggy Remains of “Ida” Threaten Mid Atlantic with Severe Flooding – Climate’s Role in Rapid Hurricane Intensification

GFS 2-Week Jet Stream Forecast No Rush Into Autumn. I still suspect September will wind up milder than average with more 80s, possibly another shot at 90 degrees – and with any luck showers and storms will become a bit more frequent in the weeks to come. Inland Flooding Potential from “Ida”NOAA and Praedictix August 29, 2021 file image of Hurricane IdaNOAA and AerisWeather In the History of Hurricane Names, “I” Stands for Infamous. They come at the midpoint of the hurricane season when ocean water temperatures are warmest, capable of fueling the most intense hurricanes. A little interesting trivia...

storm over water via unsplash
August 31

Louisiana Left Reeling from “Ida” – Hurricane Strength Was No Surprise to Forecasters – Mandatory Fire Evacuations in Tahoe Basin

Paul Douglas Why September May Offer Year’s Best Weather ”September tries its best to have us forget summer” wrote English philosopher Bernard Williams. I love all the seasons (and the fact that Minnesota HAS 4 seasons) but September is my favorite month of the year. Days are still lukewarm, lakes warm enough for one or two more dips. Severe storms are rare as the noisy blur of summer fades into comfortable days with cotton-ball cumulus and low humidity. That is all fine and good but Minnesota is still too dry and dusty. According to the local DNR “As of this...