Tag: hurricane season

Image of a mountainous landscape via Storm Water Solutions
November 4

Supernaturally Mild Across Much of USA Into Mid-November – Boston Among US Cities Most Vulnerable to Hurricane Damage

Paul Douglas Bad News For Hunters and Pond Hockey Fans My sense: most Minnesotans are enjoying this extended weather honeymoon, with flashes of September warmth showing up in early November. But not everyone. Hunters are irritable. WCCO Radio’s Mike Max had a special weather request for duck hunting in North Dakota. “Paul, I’d like low clouds and a northwest breeze”. Yep, and I’d like a shiny new Doppler, but that isn’t going to happen either. Praedictix meteorologist Todd Nelson wants snow for tracking during Saturday’s Deer Hunting Opener. “Would you settle for heavy frost?” I inquired, hoping to find common...

Wind turbines against a sunset sky, via Xcel Energy
October 15

Climate Models Hint at Mild Bias Into January – Worst California Drought Since Late 1800s

Pete Schenck Thursday Conditions, 11 am CDTmesonet.org Frigid West, Warm East – Nation Divided Between Clash of Seasons. Capital Weather Gang has a good summary of some of the crazy extremes we’re witnessing around the USA: “An active jet stream is slicing across the center of the country and bringing a wild clash of seasons, with unseasonable warmth in the East and a frigid taste of winter in the West. Parts of the Rockies and western Plains are digging out from feet of snow that fell Tuesday and Wednesday, while a renewed dose of summer spreads over the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast...

Chairs on a beach facing the water at sunset, docks in the background. Image by Paul Douglas.
September 30

Dangerous Air: Wildfire Smoke and Dangerous PM2.5 Increasing Plains to West Coast Since 2016

A magnificent meteorological mirage…Paul Douglas Exposure To Wildfire Smoke Is A Health Risk What happens in Vegas doesn’t stay in Vegas, and the recent swirl of western wildfire smoke didn’t stay in California. New research shows an average of 8-10 weeks of smoke every year in Minnesota between 2016 and 2020. This past summer was Exhibit A, both eye-opening and eye- watering. A few nearby towns experienced air quality worse than Beijing or New Delhi. Which has me thinking about masks and air filtration systems at home and in our vehicles. PM2.5 pollution is especially dangerous, responsible for over 4...

Image of the world from space with wavy line in red, green, and yellow representing the polar jet stream as it passes over the Earth's surface. Image rom NASA.
September 29

Tracking “Sam” – Running Out of Hurricane Names – Is Jet Stream Shifting Poleward?

Paul Douglas Weather Entering An Unusual Holding Pattern ”Paul, what’s the jet stream up to these days?” Great question. Glad you asked. Upper level steering winds are unusually light for late September. In fact, weather models predict an odd holding pattern into early October as weather systems stall. That’s more typical in mid-July than October, by the way. Warmer air holds more water vapor, increasing the potential for heavier downpours (exhibit A was the soggy remains of Hurricane Ida, a 1-in-1,000 year flood from Philadelphia to New York City). But it’s a 1- 2 punch of wetter systems AND lighter...

September 23

Ripening Fall Colors – Using Satellite Wind Lidar to Improve Hurricane Forecasts – Summer Wildfire Smoke Emitted More CO2 Than India Does In a Year

Fall Color FinderMinnesota DNR Falls Colors Peaking Over Minnesota Arrowhead The outlook for the next few weeks calls for a blizzard of color, caravans of determined leaf-peepers, and backyard workouts involving rakes. The leaves are leaving, but not before a crescendo of color, nature’s exclamation point, coming at the end of the hottest summer on record for Minnesota and the nation. Colors are peaking over the Minnesota Arrowhead, but the most vibrant hues of magenta, rust and lemon may be 2 weeks away in the metro area. Trees are stressed from the ongoing drought, so colors may be more muted...

Frosted Tips by Paul Douglas
April 27

Spike in Weather-Related Homeowners Insurance Premiums – Hurricane Season Trending More Intense

  “Frosted Tips”. The rising sun illuminated the tops of the trees for a few wondrous moments SundayPaul Douglas From Slush to Hail and High Water Season My favorite weather transition is going from slush to hail. Not really, but I’m paying more attention to hail events in recent years. There is no evidence that a warming climate is making hail larger or more frequent, at least not yet. Maybe we’ve just been particularly unlucky, especially when large hailstones pound the densely populated metro area. According to The Insurance Federation of Minnesota, homeowner insurance premiums have TRIPLED in the last...

April 13

Colorado State: 2021 Hurricane Season Will Be Busy – NOAA: CO2 Levels Now Highest in 3.6 Million Years

Mellowing Pattern by Late April. The GFS model suggests a relatively benign pattern within a couple of weeks, with an active southern branch of the jet stream igniting frequent severe storm outbreaks over the southern USA, but relatively mild weather over the central USA. Philip Klotzbach, Twitter Colorado State University: Busier Than Average Hurricane Season. Here’s an excerpt from CSU’s press release: “We anticipate that the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions may transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface...

fall-color-Pete-Pequot-header
October 7

Colder, Snowier La Nina Winter? ECMWF Disagrees. Hurricane Delta Threatens Gulf Coast

Fine Fall Weather Into The Weekend “October was always the least dependable of months, full of ghosts and shadows” wrote Canadian novelist Joy Fielding. True, October can be a dark, turbulent, windblown month, but if you’re not a fan of freezes and flakes I have a sneaky suspicion you’re going to like this month more than usual. NOAA is calling for a La Nina winter, which often favors more snow for Minnesota. But the latest January forecast from ECMWF (European model) predicts record warmth for the lower 48 states in January 2021. Place your bets, but it may not be...

fall-Deerfield-Trail-Lake-Pete-header
September 25

La Nina Likely This Winter – 5 of California’s 6 Biggest Wildfires Observed Last 2 Months

La Nina Now Likely This Winter I’ve consulted my therapist and my winter outlook remains unchanged: “Colder with some snow”. It’s the details (when, where, how much?) that trip me up every time. According to NOAA, a La Nina cooling phase in the Pacific Ocean should linger into much of the winter. Every La Nina is different (lovely) but most La Nina winters favor more snow for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Snowfall has been erratic in recent years but snow lovers may have reason for hope. In spite of La Nina, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts a milder...