Tag: Hurricane

Snow squall causes bad road conditions
November 13

Peril of “Snow Squalls”, La Nina Strengthening – Eta, Theta and Iota

The Perils of Snow Squalls and a Thanksgiving Thaw Many of us become transfixed by the big snowstorms but sometimes it’s the little things. Like yesterday’s 60-minute snow burst, a “snow squall”. Prevalent downwind of the Great Lakes, these bands of torrential snow are similar to a line of summer thunderstorms: a narrow band of intense precipitation. Visibilities can fall to zero in seconds, creating mayhem on the highways. What I’ve found over the years (the hard way) is that it’s not “how many inches” of snow falls. It’s the timing, intensity and temperature of the roadway surface. A lousy...

typhoon-vamco-header
November 12

“Eta” Takes Second Swipe at Florida – “Theta” Makes Record 29 Storms in 2020

Impressive Early Season Snowfall Tallies. Granted, most of it has melted, but 14.8″ of snow in the Twin Cities as of November 10 (more than a foot above average, to date) and nearly 20″ at Duluth? Snow lovers have to feel pretty good right about now. Maybe we’ll have a real winter, preferably without the Polar Vortex. Good Travel Weather Thanksgiving Week. Right now I don’t see any (big) storms looking out 1-2 weeks, just a series of Alberta Clippers, but little moisture available for accumulating snow. Temperature may be in the 40s, possibly 50+, depending on how quickly we...

satellite-hurricane-eta
November 4

Record Warmth Reaches MSP – Hurricane Eta Delivers Punishing Blow to Nicaragua – Poses Risk to Florida

Colder and Stormier by Mid-Month. That’s what GFS is hinting at; maybe a few significant storms (mixed precipitation?) less than 2 weeks out as a few waves of colder air push south of the border. Category 4 Hurricane Eta Punishes Nicaragua. The New York Times (paywall) has details: “The Category 4 storm threatened much of Central America with winds of up to 140 miles per hour and rainfall that could reach 35 inches in some areas. Forecasters predicted that Hurricane Eta, whose eye began making landfall along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua midafternoon Tuesday, would rapidly lose power as soon...

fall-color-Pete-Pequot-header
October 7

Colder, Snowier La Nina Winter? ECMWF Disagrees. Hurricane Delta Threatens Gulf Coast

Fine Fall Weather Into The Weekend “October was always the least dependable of months, full of ghosts and shadows” wrote Canadian novelist Joy Fielding. True, October can be a dark, turbulent, windblown month, but if you’re not a fan of freezes and flakes I have a sneaky suspicion you’re going to like this month more than usual. NOAA is calling for a La Nina winter, which often favors more snow for Minnesota. But the latest January forecast from ECMWF (European model) predicts record warmth for the lower 48 states in January 2021. Place your bets, but it may not be...

teddy3-scaled
September 24

“Beta” Floods Houston, “Teddy” Strikes Canada, Zombie-Storm “Paulette” Rises Again

2020: A Disruptive Year For Weather Too “There are two ways to be fooled. One, to believe what isn’t true. The other is to refuse to believe what is true” wrote 19th century Danish philosopher Soren Kierkegaard. The way 2020 is turning out it’s tempting not to believe our eyes or ears some days. Meteorologists are paying attention to a firehose of freakish weather, tracking volcano-like plumes of smoke and ash from western fires. 140 mph wind gusts from an Iowa derecho. Hurricane Teddy hitting Nova Scotia, Canada! And now Paulette, a “zombie storm” that died, then regenerated over the...

aeris lanos1
September 22

“Medicane” in the Mediterranean Sea – “Teddy” and Likely “Wilfred” Threaten U.S.

2 Weeks Out – Cut Off Low Out East? Minnesota and the western two thirds of the USA are forecast to run milder than average, with a closed low causing clouds and showers (and cooler than normal temperatures) over much of the east. Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday morning, September 17th, 2020: Tropical Depression Sally Sally Weakening. While Sally has quickly weakened over the past 24 hours as the system continues to move inland, it is still producing heavy rain across portions of the Southeast this morning. As of 4 AM CDT, the center of Sally was 50 miles southeast of...

eye of hurricane from air
September 9

Chaos Theory Limits Long-Range Weather Accuracy – Tracking “Paulette” and “Rene”

The Dominance of Chaos. An accurate forecast 4 months into the future? Don’t hold your breath. At the end of the day meteorologists are up against chaos theory, as a story at Mashable explains; here’s an excerpt: “…Yet, there‚Äôs a limit on how far into the future humanity can ever predict the day-to-day weather: Will a storm probably hit my town? Will it be a terrible day for a barbecue? Will driving be too dangerous? The absolute limit on this type of weather prediction is somewhere between two and three weeks, said Falko Judt, a research meteorologist at the National...

September 8

The United States of Weather Extremes: Record Heat, Wildfires, Freak Snows Out West

The United States of Weather Extremes 2020 has been a volatile, jaw-dropping year – and disruption applies to America’s weather. In recent days I’ve witnessed things I’ve never seen before. 121F in the suburbs of Los Angeles. A 5 year drought fueling massive California wildfires, billowing smoke thousands of miles downwind. While the west bakes Denver just dropped 60 degrees in 2 days; from 100F to 30s and snow, in a meteorological blink of an eye. “Paulette” has formed in the Atlantic, the 16th storm and earliest P-name on record. And now there’s Tropical Storm Rene, the earliest R-name on...

cumulonimbus pileus
September 4

Crazy Extremes Facing Denver – Did Harsh NWS Language Save Lives with “Laura”?

  Moderately Cool Third Week of September. Temperatures over the northern tier of the USA will be cooler than average 2 weeks out, if you buy the GFS solution above. We’ll see more warm fronts, more 70s and 80s into late September, but while much of the south and west sizzles Minnesotans will be reaching for sweatshirts much of the next 2 weeks. Definition of a Cold Front. I’m sure this has happened before, but I can’t remember anything quite this drastic in recent years; a nearly 65 degree drop in the span of 2-3 days? ECMWF (above) for Denver...

Hurricane Laura ISS
September 3

Dangerous Hurricane Laura Approaches Gulf Coast – Higher Resolution Tornado Simulations

Hurricane Laura Threatens Gulf Coast “The first rule of hurricane coverage is that every broadcast must begin with palm trees bending in the wind” wrote author Carl Hiaasen. True. And frantic TV reporters hunkered down on the beach. Hurricane Laura is forecast to come ashore late tonight, perilously close to Houston. The storm is passing over warm water, jet fuel for hurricanes. It may roar ashore with 115 mph winds and a basketball-hoop-high storm surge of over 10 feet. You can’t blame Houstonians for being paranoid. 3 years ago “Harvey” dropped 60 inches of rain, leaving behind $125 billion in...