Tag: la nina

Mellowing Pattern by Late April. The GFS model suggests a relatively benign pattern within a couple of weeks, with an active southern branch of the jet stream igniting frequent severe storm outbreaks over the southern USA, but relatively mild weather over the central USA. Philip Klotzbach, Twitter Colorado State University: Busier Than Average Hurricane Season. Here’s an excerpt from CSU’s press release: “We anticipate that the 2021 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have above-normal activity. Current weak La Niña conditions may transition to neutral ENSO by this summer/fall, but the odds of a significant El Niño seem unlikely. Sea surface...

Perfectly fine with this…Twin Cities National Weather Service Imperfect Meteorology – But Fewer Surprises ”Perfection is not attainable, but if we chase perfection we can catch excellence” said Vince Lombardi. We want perfection in an imperfect world. Meteorology is no exception. Forecasts are far from perfect but we experience fewer (unpleasant) surprises than we did 50 years ago. How so? From floods and hurricanes to major tornado outbreaks, forecasters do a demonstrably better job setting consumer expectations. Fewer reports of “It came without any warning!” Technology, including Doppler radar and weather models, are improving. NOAA just launched an upgrade for...

“Eye of the Storm”. This was one of my radar screens yesterday as tornadic storms were pushing over Northfield, showing a perfectly concentric “rain hole” over Wright county. Kind of odd, but it quickly dawned on me that this was the center of low pressure rippling northeastward, not some quirky inland hurricane sent here to terrify us. Modified Pacific Flow. A few Canadian slaps, sure, but the flow is predicted to be roughly zonal into mid-March, meaning temperatures at or above normal across most of the Lower 48 states. Briefing: Issued Wednesday, March 10th, 2021: Heavy Snow From Wyoming to...

Photo credit: Paul Douglas. December Temperature Anomalies. 4-8F warmer than average this month? That’s what NOAA’s Climate Forecast System version 2 is (consistently) predicting for December across Minnesota, with eye-opening anomalies over 10F for much of Canada. To which I reply, what La Nina? Map credit: NOAA. Top 7 Warmest Minnesota November on Record? That’s the latest, based on data compiled by Dr. Mark Seeley; here’s an excerpt from Minnesota WeatherTalk: “In contrast to October, this November was very much warmer than normal. Most climate stations report an average monthly temperature that ranges from 4 to 6°F above normal. This...

La Nina Now Likely This Winter I’ve consulted my therapist and my winter outlook remains unchanged: “Colder with some snow”. It’s the details (when, where, how much?) that trip me up every time. According to NOAA, a La Nina cooling phase in the Pacific Ocean should linger into much of the winter. Every La Nina is different (lovely) but most La Nina winters favor more snow for the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. Snowfall has been erratic in recent years but snow lovers may have reason for hope. In spite of La Nina, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts a milder...