Tag: meteorology blog

January 26

Weather Models are Guides, Not Gospel – Satellites Have Revolutionized Study of Volcanoes

Paul Douglas Polar Breeze Brings Stiff Winds Today The Capital of Cold. MinnesoCold. Land of 10,000 Dead Batteries. We hold up frostbitten fingers in a courageously-reckless display of bitter defiance. We will NOT be swayed by polar pain! Well, maybe a southern vacation or two. Our coldest days tend to be sunny, which helps me weather negative numbers. Subzero + cloudy = Icy Hellscape. Thank goodness for that. Snowfall for the winter at MSP stands at 33.2”, or 5.5” above average. Snowfall in the Red River valley is almost a foot above average. Good news for snow-lovers and the rest...

January 25

How 2020 Covid Lockdowns May Have Decreased Lightning Strikes – Wind Power Pulling Ahead of Solar

NOAA GFS Temperatures for MSPweatherbell.com Too Cold To Snow (Much) Anytime Soon ”It’s too cold to snow!” Well, sort of. There is some scientific validity to that old proverb. Too cold to snow (much). Of course it can snow at any temperature colder than 32F, but when it’s subzero the main storm track is shoved too far south. Storms thrive along the contrast, the boundary, between warm and cold. We can still pick up scrawny little clippers capable of wind- whipped powder, but the big, sloppy, moisture-rich one-foot-plus storms don’t have a chance. As temperatures mellow a bit, which should,...

January 21

Texas Grid Concerns – Storm Surge Flood Potential in Tampa Bay – Insurers Can’t Adequately Price Wildfire Risk in California

Total (ECMWF) Snowfall by Midday Monday after 3 separate Alberta Clippersweatherbell.com A Triple-Header of Alberta Clippers Coming ”It’s so cold we chopped up the old piano for firewood. We only got 2 chords.” Sorry. After a mild fall and very weird December, Minnesota got its Cold Weather Boasting Rights back. More subzero fun is likely next week, but I do see some moderation later next week into early February. An average winter (if there is such a thing) brings 23 subzero nights at MSP. This morning was the 10th subzero night, to date. In spite of this cold stretch, we...

January 14

Major Storm Brewing For East Coast – Record Heat Grips Argentina and Australia – 2020 Was Earth’s 6th Hottest Year On Record

Moderation by Late January? A rising sun angle coupled with a retreating vortex of bitter air with more of a Pacific flow kicking should (in theory) pull us out of the deep freeze the last few days of January with mellowing temperatures are we head into February. NOAA CPC Big snow, ice and rainstorm brewing East Coastweatherbell.com Snow Impacts For The Eastern U.S. As this system dips south, a significant low is expected to form in the Southeast as we head toward the second half of the weekend, lifting northward into Monday. The loop above shows the what the radar...

January 6

40% of US Counties Hit By Climate Disasters in ’21 – Is Cold Weather Good For You? December Weather Weirding

Paul Douglas Minnesota Winter Olympics Is Well Underway With apologies to NBC, Minnesotans participate in the Winter Olympics every year. Aerobic shivering. Advanced boot-stomping. Vehicular ice dancing is a personal favorite (no flips please!) Unless you’re fleeing to Florida or Arizona, every one of you should get a gold medal for participating. A Pioneer Thursday is shaping up: subzero with a windchill dipping to -25F. Air temperatures bottom out around -17F Friday morning before recovering above zero by afternoon. We collectively exhale on Saturday with a high near 32F, before another arctic slap Sunday and Monday. 20s and a few...

January 4

ECMWF Top Weather Model – Hurricanes Trending Farther North – Can We Build a Tornado-Proof Home?

Verification of forecast accuracy at around 15,000 feet up from the European, U.S. Model (GFS) and the Canadian Model.Dr. Ryan Maue “Dad, check YouTube for a solution first. Chances are there’s a video that explains what to do.” My boys were right about that one. No matter what the task at hand is, it’s helpful to have the right tools. Meteorologist rely on weather models, but the trick is finding the right blend of model solutions for the most accuracy and highest confidence. Personally, I look at as many models as possible, but when push comes to shove the weather...

clouds in a sky
December 15

December Tornado Risk…in Minnesota? Why Was Last Friday’s Tornado Outbreak So Severe?

Twin Cities National Weather Service Slight Severe T-storm Risk Later Today I’m having a mild out-of-body meteorological experience. There is snow on the ground and you’re telling me there’s a slight risk of tornadoes later today? What the…Doppler? Last Friday’s historic (horrific) December tornado outbreak over 5 states is still top of mind. Nationwide, December has brought 3,069 record highs and 14 record lows. A lukewarm autumnal hangover has spilled into the holiday season, setting up an atmospheric clash later today. According to NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center there is a slight risk of severe T-storms, with the best chance of...

Sunset over a lake. Beach chairs line the waterfront, while the surface of the lake shows a number of boats.
December 7

Record Warmth for Much of USA by Mid-December; 4th Costliest Hurricane Season on Record

NOAA CPC Pacific Domination. Brief spasms of cold air, but longer spells of milder, Pacific-moderated air. That’s was the story during the 4th warmest meteorological autumn on record, a trend which may reemerge by mid-December, if you believe GFS guidance. Hurricane Ida: August 29, 2021 FileAerisWeather This Year’s Hurricane Season Was The 4th Most Expensive on Record. Marketplace has details: “The 2021 hurricane season officially ended this week. It was the second year in a row that the number of named Atlantic storms exhausted the list of storm names, and the fourth most expensive hurricane season on record. As far...

December 3

Extreme Weather Early Warning Systems – 3rd Busiest Atlantic Hurricane Season – What La Nina?

So long daylight…Paul Douglas An Antidote For The Dark Days of December It’s not the heat – it’s the humidity. And it’s not the cold – it’s the dark. I get it. Many of us go into a funk this time of year, and at least 1 in 10 of us suffer from “Seasonal Affective Disorder”, a hormonal imbalance caused by less sunlight. Women tend to be more affected than men, and symptoms can include anxiety, fatigue and a craving for carbohydrates. Check with your doctor, but light therapy lamps that mimic the sun can be purchased for as little...

Idaho Power’s Garden Mountain cloud seeding and meteorological site in the Payette River Basin. David Bogie/Idaho Power Company
December 1

Atmospheric River Returns to Pacific Northwest – Will “Double-Strike” US Hurricanes Become More Common?

Paul Douglas Forecast: Dark (But Relatively Mild) ”The darkness declares the glory of light” wrote poet T. S. Eliot. My personal favorite: “It’s often darkest before it goes pitch black.” MSP will see 9 hours, 4 minutes of daylight today. That compares with 15 1/2 hours in late June. Over the years I’ve fielded more gripes about the darkness than the cold. Compounding our dark moods: November and December are the cloudiest months of the year.<p>According to NOAA, November brought only 10 cloudy days at MSP. Normal is 18. It’s not your imagination: the sun WAS more visible. A persistent...