Tag: paul douglas weather

Idaho Power’s Garden Mountain cloud seeding and meteorological site in the Payette River Basin. David Bogie/Idaho Power Company
December 1

Atmospheric River Returns to Pacific Northwest – Will “Double-Strike” US Hurricanes Become More Common?

Paul Douglas Forecast: Dark (But Relatively Mild) ”The darkness declares the glory of light” wrote poet T. S. Eliot. My personal favorite: “It’s often darkest before it goes pitch black.” MSP will see 9 hours, 4 minutes of daylight today. That compares with 15 1/2 hours in late June. Over the years I’ve fielded more gripes about the darkness than the cold. Compounding our dark moods: November and December are the cloudiest months of the year.<p>According to NOAA, November brought only 10 cloudy days at MSP. Normal is 18. It’s not your imagination: the sun WAS more visible. A persistent...

November 19

Behind the “Atmospheric River” That Flooded British Columbia and Washington – In Praise of Snow – Lowering Temperature on Wildfires?

Paul Douglas In Defense of Snow Days ”A lot of people like snow. I find it to be an unnecessary freezing of water” quipped comedian Carl Reiner. I can live without 20 below but I don’t mind the snow. It’s an insulator, shielding plant life from extreme cold. It’s a moisture supply: melting snow fuels spring’s miraculous rebirth. You can PLAY in frozen water! You can’t surf a hurricane storm surge, or hike up an active volcano (ill-advised) or savor a heat wave. Pick your poison – I’ll take a white-washed pile of flaky fun any day of the week....

November 18

Origin of Phrase “Jet Stream” – Greenland Melting Threatens More Coastal Flooding – Building Back Climate-Resilient

500mb (18,000 foot) wind speeds at 18Z Wednesdaypivotalweather.com The Jet Stream Makes For Bad Hair Days ”Blow, blow, thou winter wind. Thou art not so unkind, As man’s ingratitude” wrote William Shakespeare in “As You Like It”. The winds are howling, a symptom of a roller-coaster ride in the temperature department. The “jet stream” was discovered in the 1920s by Japanese meteorologist Wasaburo Ooishi, who launched weather balloons. High-speed jet stream headwinds were encountered by B-29 pilots flying west toward Japan on bombing runs during WWII. They often missed their targets and sometimes ran out of fuel, due to a...

Image via Katrina Manson of Reuters. Image depict crowds of people on the beach in Freetown, cooling off in the water on a hot day.
November 16

Thanksgiving: Cold/Stormy East – Mild West. NOAA: Warm Signal Lingers Into February

Paul Douglas Outlook: Cool, Quiet (and Mostly Dark) I dare you to go one day without complaining about how early the sun sets. By the way sunset is 4:44pm. 9 hours 32 minutes of daylight. The sun angle in the southern sky is equivalent to January 26. Which makes me extra-happy we’ll enjoy a high near 50F later today, almost 10F above average. November is running 3.4F milder than average, with a whopping 1.2 inches |PART3: of snow at MSP. The last I checked meteorological autumn is the 3rd warmest on record in the Twin Cities, to date. We’ve had...

File image NASA
November 12

Mild East – Wintry Upper Midwest – Warming Climate Juicing Heatwaves

Winter Pangs? We’ll see 40s next week, but 500mb guidance roughly 2 weeks out shows prevailing jet stream winds buckling, allowing another shot of cold air to sail south around Thanksgiving. Confidence levels are low – there is no continuity from model run to run. Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday, November 11th, 2021 The first winter storm of the season will impact portions of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest today into Friday, with light to moderate snow expected to fall and strong winds in place. The heaviest amounts of snow (potentially over a half a foot) is expected to fall...

The ice sheet atop the world’s largest island contains enough frozen water to lift oceans some six metres (20 feet) globally, and extreme melting events there have been increasing in frequency for at least 40 years. Photo via phys.org.
November 3

“Medicanes” – Wettest Tropical Cyclones in Centuries – Odd Weather Phobias

File: BWCAPhotographer Steve Burns Preparing For An Indian Summer Weekend It looked like the world was covered in a cobbler crust of brown sugar and cinnamon, wrote North Carolina novelist Sarah Addison Allen. The scene outside my frosty window is crunchy, with shades of rust and lemon. The leaves have largely left, and now that we experienced the first frost of the season, we can call this weekend’s warm front “Indian Summer”. It’s a term dating back 2-4 centuries, describing unusually mild weather that allowed Native Americans to continue harvesting and hunting. Pattern Favors Major East Coast Storms. Parts of...

Illustration: Sarah Grillo, Axios
October 29

Weather Extreme Risk to Degrading US Grid – Study: 12 Million Global Deaths Due to Environmental Risk Annually

Postcard PrettyPete Schenck, Pequot Lakes 6-10 Day Temperature AnomaliesNOAA Looking Colder and Stormier. Considering the sun angle is equivalent to mid-February I can’t say I’m surprised, but the sunny, lukewarm honeymoon appears to be drawing to a close. GFS guidance hints at a stormier pattern for much of the USA within 2 weeks as cold air pushes inexorably southward, setting the stage for a better chance of real cold fronts (and both rain and snow). Duluth National Weather Service Meteorological Set-Up for 1991 Halloween Blizzard. The Duluth office of the National Weather Service has an excellent recap of the jaw-dropping...

File image NOAA Ocean Today
October 28

Fox Weather Channel – Odds of a White Halloween – Remembering 1991 Minnesota Halloween Blizzard

Paul Douglas Extreme Weather Affecting Moving Plans? A recent Redfin.com survey shows nearly half of Americans considering a move are factoring extreme weather events and climate change into their plans. It’s hard to find a spot with no weather-risk, but certain areas are more vulnerable: rising seas and consistently stronger hurricanes for Florida and the Gulf Coast. Bigger fires and more smoke in California and much of the western US. Concerns are growing about water shortages from Las Vegas to Phoenix. Simulations suggest a slow, inexorable northward migration in coming decades. Minnesota may be a net beneficiary of these trends....

Bryce Jones, head of Flash Forest, says drones are “an incredibly practical tool to do things we could never do otherwise.” Flash Forest
October 27

Historical Odds of a White Halloween – U.S. Power Grid Increasingly Unreliable – Fox Weather Channel Details

Brian Brettschneider Low Odds of a White Halloween. Looking at the data only a 1-5% for the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Rochester, but 10-25% of Halloweens have had an inch or more of snow on the ground October 31. This won’t be one of them. Mixed Signals. Confidence levels in the GFS 500mb position and strength are low; consecutive model runs have been contradictory. Yesterday’s solution looked milder – the latest solution shows seasonably chilly air spilling into the second week of November. Source: U.S. Energy Information AdministrationNICK MOURTOUPALAS/THE WASHINGTON POST Longer, More Frequent Outages Afflict the U.S. Power...

October 26

Bomb Cyclones and Nor’easters – CO2 Reaches New High in 2020

ECMWF predicted rainfall by Friday morningweatherbell.com Soaking Rain Likely By Wednesday With Canada cooling off rapidly, late October can bring jaw-dropping storms. California went from extreme drought to Biblical flooding in the meteorological blink of an eye: reports of mudslides, flooding, and 5-10 feet of snow in the mountains. Meanwhile a powerful Nor’easter may bring hurricane-force gusts to southern New England later today. I’m counting my blessings, atmospheric and otherwise. Mild(er) Signal Reemerges by Mid-November. We’ll see a few hardier shots of Canadian air the first week of November, but GFS model guidance suggests a return of ridging over the...