Tag: Paul Douglas

August 3

It’s Early To Be Tracking Smoke – Will “Drone Boats” Improve Hurricane Forecast Accuracy?

Paul Douglas Smoke, Heat & Drought? Welcome to Fresno! A friend living in Los Angeles told me that Californians don’t trust air they can’t see. I get it now. Remind me to never take a baby blue sky for granted again. Sadly, what happens in Ontario and Manitoba doesn’t stay in central Canada. Unusually dry weather is fanning an outbreak of blazes – drenching thunderstorms have been few and far between upwind, and that’s manifesting itself in a smoggy, smoky sky more typical of Beijing or New Delhi during the winter months. India with Lakes (and much better Scandinavian food)....

July 28

Dangerous Heat Indices – Toasty Olympics – Next Generation Wildfire Tracking Uses Satellites and AI

Heat Index Alert: Hottest Day of 2021? Based on predicted heat indices today will, in all probability, feel like the hottest day of the year. Unlike June, when we saw 90s (99F on June 5) with dry air, today’s upper 90s will be accompanied by a dew point in the 70s, making it feel as hot as 105-110F by late afternoon. Check on neighbors to make sure they are keeping cool. Don’t even consider leaving a child in a vehicle. In a matter of minutes on a day like today temperatures rise to 115-120F inside a car or truck. An...

Fire by the lake
May 12

Limping Into Summer – Deepening Drought Western USA – New Normals – 25th Anniversary of “Twister”, the Movie

Little fire, meet big fire.Paul Douglas It’s May, As In It MAY Warm Up It’s May. As in it MAY be nice. Or it MAY snow a little. Or Flood. Or tornado. May is manic and momentous, a meteorological gateway drug to summer. I’m a summer guy, but there is something to be said for May, before the bugs, jungle-like humidity, sputtering thunderstorms and beachball-size hail. A prologue to summer: a dash of warmth, without all the unpleasant side effects. Mostly-Dry, Mostly-Average Fishing Opener. Although a stray shower can’t be ruled out Saturday, Sunday looks like the wetter day with...

May 11

Summer Outlook: Hotter, Drier Western States – 25th Anniversary of “Twister”

25th Anniversary of “Twister”, The Movie ”Hey Bryce, you better get over here and take a look at this!” 13 words that changed my life forever. Well, not really. That was my line in the movie, “Twister”, which came out 25 years ago. Director Steven Spielberg used software from a previous weather company for “Jurassic Park”. His team reached out again for “Twister” and we created new, tornado and supercell-centric graphics and special effects for control room scenes. I was drafted to have a line in the movie, and I wasn’t about to say no. The weather control room shots...

April 20

Who Has Seen “Tornado Emergencies” – Outlook: ENSO Neutral – What is “Probability of Precipitation”?

Ethan Sacoransky, Twitter Snowfall Trends. The latest (1991-2020) 30-year climate averages show an apparent increase in snowfall across New England (fueled by a consistently warmer, wetter coastal storms?) with a decrease in snowfall from the Plains into the southwestern USA.   Relatively Cool Start to May? Confidence levels are low this far out (they always are) but GFS guidance suggests a lingering closed low over the Great Lakes 2 weeks out, capable of keeping Minnesota under the influence of a north breeze the first week of May. ENSO PredictionsPhilip Klotzbach, Twitter U.S. Tornado EmergenciesBrady Walker, Twitter Praedictix Tornado Safety Tips....

April 20

Western USA Primed for Drought and Wildfires – Tornado Safety – Federal Reserve Considers Climate Risks

Spring on Indefinite PauseNOAA GSL Easing Drought Conditions in MinnesotaUS Drought Monitor Drought-Busting Rains. Last week’s soaker made a big difference in the drought index, but pockets of drought remain over far northwest and southwest Minnesota. Minnesota Drought Index TimelineJan Dutton, Twitter Statistically Due for a Drought? Meteorologist Jan Dutton forwarded me the graphic above, showing the last serious, statewide drought in 2013. Springs are trending wetter over time but late summers may be trending drier. Confidence levels for summer precipitation are low, but some long-range climate models suggest a hotter, drier summer for Minnesota and much of the USA....

heat-wave-formation
April 6

Record-Smashing 85F Yesterday in the Twin Cities – Soaking Rains Likely Upper Midwest

NAM Rainfall Forecast Next 84 Hourspivotalweather.com ECMWF Rainfall by Friday morningweatherbell.com ECMWF Rainfall Solution. 2-3” of rain by Friday morning? NOAA NAM is suggesting over 4” (top image) and there’s little doubt that a slow-moving storm will create a long-duration rainfall event from late tomorrow into Friday. From spotty wildfires to street flooding in the meteorological blink of an eye? At this point nothing surprises me anymore. Twin Cities National Weather Service Twin Cities National Weather Service Record-Smashing. The Twin Cities saw 85F yesterday, breaking the old record of 80F in 1991. The normal high is 52F, if anyone asks....

drought in field
April 5

Expanding Drought – From Tornado Alley to “Tornado Country” – Using Cargo Ships to Detect Tsunamis?

U.S. Drought Monitor Expanding Drought. The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows a large and growing area of extreme drought across the Dakotas and far northwest Iowa, with pockets of drought for the Red River Valley and far western counties in Minnesota. Recent rains restored soil moisture from Mankato and the Twin Cities to Duluth, at least for the short term. Blocking Pattern = Lingering April Warmth. With a massive ridge of high pressure stalled over the Great Plains and Rockies I don’t see much chance for a volley of cold fronts anytime soon. Part of me wonders if Mother Nature...

tornado-leading-image-header
March 31

National Weather Service Experiencing Internet Failures – Is Tornado Alley Shifting South/East?

Weather Service Internet Systems Crumbling as Key Platforms Fail. Well this isn’t good, coming as we enter prime time for severe weather across the USA. Capital Weather Gang explains the scope of the problem: “The National Weather Service experienced a major, system-wide Internet failure Tuesday morning, making its forecasts and warnings inaccessible to the public and limiting the data available to its meteorologists. The outage highlights systemic, long-standing issues with its information technology infrastructure, which the agency has struggled to address as demands for its services have only increased. In addition to Tuesday morning’s outage, the Weather Service has encountered...

hot summer header
March 30

NOAA CPC Models Hint at (Extra) Hot Summer – Tornado Alley is Really a 6-Lane Freeway

North American Multi-Model Ensemble Temperature Anomaly (C) for June, July and AugustNOAA Climate Prediction Center Early Spring An Omen Of a Hot Summer to Come? Sometimes Mother Nature offers a preview of what may lie ahead, months down the road. March 29, 1986 saw a record 83F at MSP. The summer that followed was stifling for much of the southern United States. March 2012: another case of premature warmth, with flowers blooming in late March, followed by very hot and steamy Minnesota summer. It’s true: Weather never repeats – but sometimes it rhymes. Ice is coming off Minnesota lakes 2-3...