Tag: Paul Douglas

Atlantic_hurricane_season_summary_map
November 25

Mild Signal Deep Into December – Record 2020 Hurricane Season Recap – Doppler Radar “Gaps”

Cooler, But Pacific Influence Lingers Into Mid-December. We’ll see a few cold shots in the weeks to come (not surprising considering the Winter Solstice is less than a month away) but I see no sign of prolonged, polar air capable of considerable discomfort. Record-Breaking 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Draws To An End. Good riddance. NOAA has highlights and lowlights: “The extremely active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season is drawing to a close with a record-breaking 30 named storms and 12 landfalling storms in the continental United States. While the official hurricane season concludes on November 30, tropical storms may continue to...

Snow squall causes bad road conditions
November 13

Peril of “Snow Squalls”, La Nina Strengthening – Eta, Theta and Iota

The Perils of Snow Squalls and a Thanksgiving Thaw Many of us become transfixed by the big snowstorms but sometimes it’s the little things. Like yesterday’s 60-minute snow burst, a “snow squall”. Prevalent downwind of the Great Lakes, these bands of torrential snow are similar to a line of summer thunderstorms: a narrow band of intense precipitation. Visibilities can fall to zero in seconds, creating mayhem on the highways. What I’ve found over the years (the hard way) is that it’s not “how many inches” of snow falls. It’s the timing, intensity and temperature of the roadway surface. A lousy...

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November 12

“Eta” Takes Second Swipe at Florida – “Theta” Makes Record 29 Storms in 2020

Impressive Early Season Snowfall Tallies. Granted, most of it has melted, but 14.8″ of snow in the Twin Cities as of November 10 (more than a foot above average, to date) and nearly 20″ at Duluth? Snow lovers have to feel pretty good right about now. Maybe we’ll have a real winter, preferably without the Polar Vortex. Good Travel Weather Thanksgiving Week. Right now I don’t see any (big) storms looking out 1-2 weeks, just a series of Alberta Clippers, but little moisture available for accumulating snow. Temperature may be in the 40s, possibly 50+, depending on how quickly we...

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November 11

29 and Counting: Record Year for Tropical Systems in the Atlantic (Up to “Theta”)

Snowfall Totals. Generally 3-6″ from last night’s snow burst, give or take. Click here for updated totals, courtesy of the Twin Cities National Weather Service. Odds Favor a Milder Than Average Thanksgiving. That may seem hard to believe gazing out your snow-encrusted window, but the flow looks more Pacific than Canadian Thanksgiving Week. A Very Warm Start to November. Dr. Mark Seeley breaks it down in Minnesota WeatherTalk; here’s an excerpt: “After recording mostly cooler than normal temperatures on the first day of the month, temperatures have averaged 12 to 18 degrees F warmer than normal under mostly bright, sunny...

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November 10

Crazy Weather Extremes Upper Midwest – “Eta” May Take Second Pass at Florida

Plowable. Hard to believe it was in the 70s two days ago. The weather always changes fast at this latitude but…good grief. ECMWF (above two graphics) shows 5-7″ for the metro – there may be a little melting as the snow begins to fall later today, but some spots will wind up with 4-6″. Maps: WeatherBell. Moderate Pacific Flow Leading Up to Thanksgiving. I see continued troughing in the western USA, suggesting more of a Pacific breeze for Minnesota the week leading up to Thanksgiving, with temperatures are few degrees above average. In spite of today’s snow, I see no...

highs-friday-header-radar
November 9

September in November – ECMWF Hints at Mild Winter – “Eta” May Flood South Florida Early Next Week

What La Nina? ECMWF seasonal climate outlooks predict December through February mean temperatures 2-5F warmer than normal across most of the lower 48; only Alaska predicted to enjoy a colder than average winter. We’ll see. Stormier, Wetter Pattern Returns by mid-November. All signs point to an inevitable buckling of jet stream steering winds, with enough southern moisture and Canadian chill in place for possible rain-ice-snow events within 1-2 weeks. After this week we’re probably due for a rude reversal in our weather fortunes. Briefing: Issued Thursday, November 5th, 2020: Tropical Depression Eta Eta Inland Over Central America. Eta has continued...

paddleboarding in November
November 5

Record Warmth Central USA – “Eta” Poses Risk to Florida Early Next Week

  Paddleboarding in November. Not me, no way. I have brave neighbors… (Photo credit: Paul Douglas) Record 74F in the Twin Cities on Wednesday “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” New York Yankee Yogi Berra famously uttered. No kidding. I almost feel bad for the pollsters, with their fancy models and confident projections. Once again they made meteorologists look good, which is hard to do. Predicting the future is hard, a tenuous mix of art and science. The accuracy of your forecast depends on the quality of data you feed into models, which aren’t perfect, just rough...

satellite-hurricane-eta
November 4

Record Warmth Reaches MSP – Hurricane Eta Delivers Punishing Blow to Nicaragua – Poses Risk to Florida

Colder and Stormier by Mid-Month. That’s what GFS is hinting at; maybe a few significant storms (mixed precipitation?) less than 2 weeks out as a few waves of colder air push south of the border. Category 4 Hurricane Eta Punishes Nicaragua. The New York Times (paywall) has details: “The Category 4 storm threatened much of Central America with winds of up to 140 miles per hour and rainfall that could reach 35 inches in some areas. Forecasters predicted that Hurricane Eta, whose eye began making landfall along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua midafternoon Tuesday, would rapidly lose power as soon...

Setting sun on iced over lake
November 3

Unseasonable Warmth for Central USA While Category 4+”Eta” Threatens Central America

Second or Third Warmest Election Day on Record for MSP. There’s a pretty good chance the official high will reach 68F, the second warmest November 3 on record in the Twin Cities. Graphic: Twin Cities National Weather Service. Moderately Cold by Mid-November. Jet stream winds buckle within 1-2 weeks with more Canadian than Pacific air infiltrating the USA, pushing any lingering warmth into far southern states. It was a good run whileit lasted, I guess. Super Typhoon Goni Slams into Philippines as Strongest Landfalling Tropical Cyclone on Record. Dr. Jeff Masters has eye-opening statistics about the mega-hurricane that just hit...

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October 30

2020: Most Billion-Dollar Disasters on Record for USA – Quiet Election Day for Most of USA

Election Day Weather Preview. Most of the USA is forecast to have a quiet, relatively mild Tuesday. The only exceptions: rain for the Pacific Northwest and cold winds and snow showers and flurries across New England. Zonal Flow Spills into Mid-November? GFS guidance is a bit contradictory. The forecast for 500mb winds roughly 2 weeks out shows more of a Pacific influence, keeping temperatures close to average across most of the USA, maybe a few degrees below average for Minnesota as we end out the second week of November. Briefing: Issued Thursday, October 29th, 2020: Tropical Storm Zeta Zeta Moving...