Tag: Precipitation

January 7

Hints of a Late January Polar Vortex Signature – Dangers of Leaving Weather Predictions to AI – 40% of US Counties Impacted by Climate-Fueled Weather Extremes in 2021

Tracking a Variety of Cold (and Colder) Fronts Hi, my name is Paul. Hobbies include napping, tinkering with the Doppler – and tracking cold fronts. Big fronts. Little fronts. Sloppy little dribbles of chilly air and full-frontal Siberian Assaults. In defense of cold fronts: they insulate us from some of the worst storms on Earth (hurricanes, I’m looking at you). We get our fair share of weather extremes, but I’m enjoying a lack of yard work and no allergies this month. Our coldest days tend to be sunny, which helps, at least a little. After a numbing start, the mercury...

File image NASA
November 12

Mild East – Wintry Upper Midwest – Warming Climate Juicing Heatwaves

Winter Pangs? We’ll see 40s next week, but 500mb guidance roughly 2 weeks out shows prevailing jet stream winds buckling, allowing another shot of cold air to sail south around Thanksgiving. Confidence levels are low – there is no continuity from model run to run. Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday, November 11th, 2021 The first winter storm of the season will impact portions of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest today into Friday, with light to moderate snow expected to fall and strong winds in place. The heaviest amounts of snow (potentially over a half a foot) is expected to fall...

Waves batter the Lake Michigan shoreline in Chicago on Oct. 25.
November 11

Significant Snow Upper Midwest – Mild Thanksgiving Potential – COP26 Climate Update

Des Moines National Weather Service Slushy Coating Possible Friday. With temperatures above freezing and a little rain mixing in with wind-whipped snow, I’m not terribly excited about accumulating snow in the MSP metro, although healthy amounts of slush are likely over far northern and western Minnesota. Thursday Future Clouds/PrecipitationPraedictix “Backlash”. Meteorologists love to make up words and phrases that attempt to describe what’s going on – moisture rotating all the way around a strong storm will approach from the north and northwest later today into Friday, with temperatures cold enough for light snow across most of the state – although...

October 26

Bomb Cyclones and Nor’easters – CO2 Reaches New High in 2020

ECMWF predicted rainfall by Friday morningweatherbell.com Soaking Rain Likely By Wednesday With Canada cooling off rapidly, late October can bring jaw-dropping storms. California went from extreme drought to Biblical flooding in the meteorological blink of an eye: reports of mudslides, flooding, and 5-10 feet of snow in the mountains. Meanwhile a powerful Nor’easter may bring hurricane-force gusts to southern New England later today. I’m counting my blessings, atmospheric and otherwise. Mild(er) Signal Reemerges by Mid-November. We’ll see a few hardier shots of Canadian air the first week of November, but GFS model guidance suggests a return of ridging over the...

October 21

NOAA’s Winter Preview – 72 Hours Under a Summer Deadly Heat Dome in Oregon

Pete Schenck December – February Temperature OutlookNOAA December – February Precipitation OutlookNOAA NOAA Winter Outlook: Mild Bias for Much of USA. Signatures of a La Nina are showing up in the winter forecast with warmer than normal temperatures predicted for much of the nation, and colder than average weather forecast for the Pacific Northwest. Wetter/snowier than average weather is predicted for the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes, with drier weather for the Gulf Coast and southwestern states. Stay tuned. 7-Day QPFNOAA Mild Trend To Linger Into Early November? If you believe NOAA’s GFS model it will, in spite of a...

October 13

Meteorology is a Steep Learning Curve – Insane Precipitation Extremes Across USA Last 12 Months

A Reminder why today’s rain is welcomeBrian Brettschneider The Profound Perils of Predicting Weather You can only learn so much out of a book. Exhibit A: predicting the weather. Meteorologists study calculus, physics and chemistry, but at the end of the day we learn by making mistakes. Lot’s of mistakes. It’s a painful (and public) learning curve. The technology has improved (Doppler radar, better satellites and models) and as weather has trended more extreme over time fewer people are falling victim. We have new ways to receive warnings (smartphones and social media) and our National Weather Service is arguably the...

October 12

2021: Nearly as Many Billion Dollar Disasters as Record 2020 Season – Drought Spells Trouble for Hydropower – Can Grid Handle Renewable Revolution?

Maps Still Don’t Look Like Late October. NOAA’s GFS model roughly 2 weeks out shows a massive ridge of high pressure over the western US and much of western Canada, which suggests another warming trend by the third of fourth week of October. At this rate I wouldn’t be shocked to see a few more 70s within 2 weeks or so. World Meteorological Organization Sharpens Warnings About Both Too Much and Too Little Water. Inside Climate News reports: “The global supply of fresh water is dropping by almost half an inch annually, the World Meteorological Organization warned in a report...