Tag: Rain

File image NASA
November 12

Mild East – Wintry Upper Midwest – Warming Climate Juicing Heatwaves

Winter Pangs? We’ll see 40s next week, but 500mb guidance roughly 2 weeks out shows prevailing jet stream winds buckling, allowing another shot of cold air to sail south around Thanksgiving. Confidence levels are low – there is no continuity from model run to run. Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday, November 11th, 2021 The first winter storm of the season will impact portions of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest today into Friday, with light to moderate snow expected to fall and strong winds in place. The heaviest amounts of snow (potentially over a half a foot) is expected to fall...

Waves batter the Lake Michigan shoreline in Chicago on Oct. 25.
November 11

Significant Snow Upper Midwest – Mild Thanksgiving Potential – COP26 Climate Update

Des Moines National Weather Service Slushy Coating Possible Friday. With temperatures above freezing and a little rain mixing in with wind-whipped snow, I’m not terribly excited about accumulating snow in the MSP metro, although healthy amounts of slush are likely over far northern and western Minnesota. Thursday Future Clouds/PrecipitationPraedictix “Backlash”. Meteorologists love to make up words and phrases that attempt to describe what’s going on – moisture rotating all the way around a strong storm will approach from the north and northwest later today into Friday, with temperatures cold enough for light snow across most of the state – although...

The ice sheet atop the world’s largest island contains enough frozen water to lift oceans some six metres (20 feet) globally, and extreme melting events there have been increasing in frequency for at least 40 years. Photo via phys.org.
November 3

“Medicanes” – Wettest Tropical Cyclones in Centuries – Odd Weather Phobias

File: BWCAPhotographer Steve Burns Preparing For An Indian Summer Weekend It looked like the world was covered in a cobbler crust of brown sugar and cinnamon, wrote North Carolina novelist Sarah Addison Allen. The scene outside my frosty window is crunchy, with shades of rust and lemon. The leaves have largely left, and now that we experienced the first frost of the season, we can call this weekend’s warm front “Indian Summer”. It’s a term dating back 2-4 centuries, describing unusually mild weather that allowed Native Americans to continue harvesting and hunting. Pattern Favors Major East Coast Storms. Parts of...

October 13

Meteorology is a Steep Learning Curve – Insane Precipitation Extremes Across USA Last 12 Months

A Reminder why today’s rain is welcomeBrian Brettschneider The Profound Perils of Predicting Weather You can only learn so much out of a book. Exhibit A: predicting the weather. Meteorologists study calculus, physics and chemistry, but at the end of the day we learn by making mistakes. Lot’s of mistakes. It’s a painful (and public) learning curve. The technology has improved (Doppler radar, better satellites and models) and as weather has trended more extreme over time fewer people are falling victim. We have new ways to receive warnings (smartphones and social media) and our National Weather Service is arguably the...

Exxon station damaged by Hurricane Ida by John Taggart for The New York Times
September 21

Consensus of Climate Models Predicts Mild Bias Into December

  A Handful of Cooler Fronts In Sight – Mild Bias into December? The only predictable thing is change. our weather patterns are changing, with longer growing seasons and fickle winters with brief, concentrated polar blasts. Wets are wetter and dries are trending drier. I am cautiously optimistic the pattern that brought us a hot and dusty summer is finally easing. But pulling out of the drought will take months, not weeks or days. Think dimmer switch, not on-off. NOAA’s climate models show a mild bias lingering into December, and I have every reason to believe Minnesotans will enjoy a...

May 28

Hurricane Preparedness 101 – Using Drones and Electricity to Make it Rain?

Toasty. Long-range (GFS) guidance for the evening of June 10, low-confidence guidance, suggests sizzling heat for much of the nation, but a developing Omega Block may keep the Pacific Northwest and New England cool and showery. Hurricane Hunter Lockheed WC-130JU.S. Air Force Hurricane 2021: Medical Advice for the Storm, Evacuation and Pandemic. Here is an excerpt of useful advice for people living in Hurricane Alley, courtesy of Tampa Bay Times: “…Evacuation is the pinnacle of hurricane preparedness. Ask yourself the important questions such as: where are you going to go and how are you going to get there? Having options...