Tag: snow

January 25

How 2020 Covid Lockdowns May Have Decreased Lightning Strikes – Wind Power Pulling Ahead of Solar

NOAA GFS Temperatures for MSPweatherbell.com Too Cold To Snow (Much) Anytime Soon ”It’s too cold to snow!” Well, sort of. There is some scientific validity to that old proverb. Too cold to snow (much). Of course it can snow at any temperature colder than 32F, but when it’s subzero the main storm track is shoved too far south. Storms thrive along the contrast, the boundary, between warm and cold. We can still pick up scrawny little clippers capable of wind- whipped powder, but the big, sloppy, moisture-rich one-foot-plus storms don’t have a chance. As temperatures mellow a bit, which should,...

January 18

Snowbirds Should Remain in Place – Coldest States in the USA – Snowfall Update for the Nation at Midwinter

Snowbird Alert: Stay Away Until Further Notice It’s not the heat, it’s the humidity. It’s not the cold, it’s smug snowbirds in Florida trolling me about our hearty Minnesota winters. Where are these people during hurricane season? One important note to share when you’re trading weather insults: Minnesota is NOT the coldest state in the union. According to NOAA data highlighted at Minnpost, Alaska is coldest, followed by North Dakota. Minnesota is tied with Maine for 3rd coldest, based on year-round average temperatures. I feel better already. Nights are long and snowy across Canada, which has been transformed into an...

January 7

Hints of a Late January Polar Vortex Signature – Dangers of Leaving Weather Predictions to AI – 40% of US Counties Impacted by Climate-Fueled Weather Extremes in 2021

Tracking a Variety of Cold (and Colder) Fronts Hi, my name is Paul. Hobbies include napping, tinkering with the Doppler – and tracking cold fronts. Big fronts. Little fronts. Sloppy little dribbles of chilly air and full-frontal Siberian Assaults. In defense of cold fronts: they insulate us from some of the worst storms on Earth (hurricanes, I’m looking at you). We get our fair share of weather extremes, but I’m enjoying a lack of yard work and no allergies this month. Our coldest days tend to be sunny, which helps, at least a little. After a numbing start, the mercury...

December 10

Significant Snow Upper Midwest – Power Grid Needs Upgrades – Hurricane Trends in a Warming World

Twin Cities National Weather Service First Plowable Snow for MSP Metro We have a segment on our WCCO Radio show called “weather therapy”, which seems appropriate today. I am a meteorologist and also a part time pseudo- psychologist. “It’s ‘gonna be fine!” “It’s just frozen water!” “It’ll melt!” The first snowstorm of the season conjures up feelings of euphoria and dread. I’m pro-snow, but not when I’m stuck in traffic. I get it. Snow intensity increases this afternoon and the drive home may be a white-knuckle affair. The axis of heaviest snow keeps shifting north and south, but it appears...

Image via Katrina Manson of Reuters. Image depict crowds of people on the beach in Freetown, cooling off in the water on a hot day.
November 16

Thanksgiving: Cold/Stormy East – Mild West. NOAA: Warm Signal Lingers Into February

Paul Douglas Outlook: Cool, Quiet (and Mostly Dark) I dare you to go one day without complaining about how early the sun sets. By the way sunset is 4:44pm. 9 hours 32 minutes of daylight. The sun angle in the southern sky is equivalent to January 26. Which makes me extra-happy we’ll enjoy a high near 50F later today, almost 10F above average. November is running 3.4F milder than average, with a whopping 1.2 inches |PART3: of snow at MSP. The last I checked meteorological autumn is the 3rd warmest on record in the Twin Cities, to date. We’ve had...

File image NASA
November 12

Mild East – Wintry Upper Midwest – Warming Climate Juicing Heatwaves

Winter Pangs? We’ll see 40s next week, but 500mb guidance roughly 2 weeks out shows prevailing jet stream winds buckling, allowing another shot of cold air to sail south around Thanksgiving. Confidence levels are low – there is no continuity from model run to run. Praedictix Briefing: Issued Thursday, November 11th, 2021 The first winter storm of the season will impact portions of the Northern Plains and upper Midwest today into Friday, with light to moderate snow expected to fall and strong winds in place. The heaviest amounts of snow (potentially over a half a foot) is expected to fall...

Waves batter the Lake Michigan shoreline in Chicago on Oct. 25.
November 11

Significant Snow Upper Midwest – Mild Thanksgiving Potential – COP26 Climate Update

Des Moines National Weather Service Slushy Coating Possible Friday. With temperatures above freezing and a little rain mixing in with wind-whipped snow, I’m not terribly excited about accumulating snow in the MSP metro, although healthy amounts of slush are likely over far northern and western Minnesota. Thursday Future Clouds/PrecipitationPraedictix “Backlash”. Meteorologists love to make up words and phrases that attempt to describe what’s going on – moisture rotating all the way around a strong storm will approach from the north and northwest later today into Friday, with temperatures cold enough for light snow across most of the state – although...

April 8

Tracking Western U.S. Drought Trends – Climate Change a Factor for Some Home Buyers

Trending Closer to Average by Late April. After next week’s cool correction a zonal flow should lure the mercury to, or just above, average by the last week of April, highs mostly in the 50s with a few 60s possible. Summer Temperature Anomaly ProbabilitiesNOAA Climate Prediction Center Extended Wish-Cast: A Stinking Hot Summer? Confidence levels are very low, but NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s suite of long range climate models suggests high confidence for warmer than average temperatures for much of the USA for June, July and August. Interesting data points, but I wouldn’t wager any money on that bet just...

January 12

Do You Live In One of America’s Riskiest Counties? Record 22 Billion-Dollar Disasters in 2020 Across USA

Header Photo Credit: Paul Douglas A Thaw, Then Accumulating Snow Late Week Minnesota sees its fair share of gasp-worthy weather, but don’t let anyone living in Miami, L.A. or Lincoln give you a hard time. According to FEMA’s National Risk Index, overall threats are greater across the central Plains (tornadoes), coastal areas (hurricanes), and some counties on the west coast, prone to both fire and quakes. Since 1991, January has been the snowiest month of the year for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Across roughly the northern half of the state December is the snowiest month, according to climate analyst...

January 8

Coldest Air of Winter East of Rockies in 2 Weeks? NOAA Making Winter Travel Safer

Header Image: Long ShadowsPaul Douglas Fog, A Thaw – Then Flirting With Zero ”Paul, why does the weather forecast keep changing?” The right question to be asking. Meteorologists refine forecasts over time, reacting to new data and the latest weather models. The closer you get to a weather event the more accurate the forecast should be. At least in theory. Weather is a metaphor for science: peeling away at an infinite onion. We zig and zag toward relative truth. The process is self-correcting and never perfect. But forecasts are far more reliable than they were even a generation ago. Case...