Tag: Tornadoes

September 6

Category 3 “Larry” Brushes Bermuda – Most Climate-Safe US State?

Paul Douglas Minnesota May Benefit From Slow Warming A recent study suggests that Vermont is the most “climate-safe” state in the US. That may be so, but I suspect Minnesota will get its fair share of climate refugees in years to come. How so? Californians worried about wildfires and months of choking smoke. Arizonans concerned about hotter hots and water shortages. Residents of the Gulf Coast unable or unwilling to put up with a parade of increasingly intense and wet hurricanes. Minnesotans will still wrestle with snow, ice and polar pops, but in the Pantheon of Weather Extremes slapping on...

High Water sign in flooded street, courtesy of NOAA
September 3

Ida’s Legacy: Historic Flood and Kansas-Size Tornadoes Paralyze Northeastern US

MN Drought Eases Slightly From Last WeekUS Drought Monitor Weather Extremes Trending More Extreme I’ve been tracking weather systems for 45 years, but nothing has prepared me for 2021’s dueling weather disasters. Our weather models have consistently underestimated the intensity of drought, fires and eastern floods. Why? Climate-warming greenhouse gases have doubled since preindustrial times, and these man-made gases are flavoring all weather now. Are too many people living in vulnerable areas? Yes. But Wednesday’s 1-in-500 year flooding from Philly to New York City and Texas-size tornadoes in New Jersey are more symptoms of our new reality. Flashes of Lukewarm....

June 30

Once In A Millennium Heat Wave Pacific Northwest and British Columbia – Spiked by a Warming Climate

Heating Up For 4th of July Festivities I’m seeing things on my weather maps I’ve never witnessed before and I’m fairly sure that’s not a good thing. Like an extraordinary “4-Sigma” heat wave for the Pacific Northwest, 4 standard deviations from the mean, or an event you might see once every 1,000 to 10,000 years. 117F in British Columbia, where satellites measured surface temperatures as high as 145F, hot enough to melt and buckle pavement. A few degrees of background warming increases the probability of historic extremes. Welcome to a new world of super-sized heat waves. Twin Cities National Weather...

Miami sunshine
June 29

Historic Heat Grips Northwest – Deepening Drought Grips West – Predicting (Rare) Inland Hurricane Intensification

8-14 Day Temperature AnomaliesNOAA CPC Warm Bias Next Week. NOAA’s climate models continue to show warmer than average temperatures next week from the west coast into the northern tier of the U.S. Medium Rare. That goes for northern tier states with 80s and 90s in mid-June. The southern two thirds of America will be well done within 2 week with 90s and 100s. Paul Douglas Estimating the Number of Excess Heat Deaths Attributable to Heat. Environmental Epidemiology has some jaw-dropping results from a 2020 study: “…We replicated the approach from a large, international study to estimate temperature-mortality associations in 297...

May 25

June Preview – Off-Grid, Climate-Ready Homes – Are Tornado Warnings Still Improving?

Brad Winger Recap of Last Wednesday’s Freakish Tornado Outbreak Far South Metro. Here’s an update from the Twin Cities National Weather Service: “Several low-topped supercells developed along a warm front across Southern Minnesota Wednesday evening, May 19, 2021. Preliminary reports indicate these storms produced 7 short-lived tornadoes across southern Minnesota. Information on the tornadoes is being gathered, and EF-scale ratings and other statistics will be determined once the information is evaluated. This was a marginal CAPE, marginal wind shear environment with low cloud bases. A strengthening low-level jet led to an increase in low-level wind shear. This was able to...

May 20

Simple Ways to Lower Weather Risk – Tornadoes South of Minneapolis – Flooding Rains Plague Gulf Coast

August 10, 2020Paul Douglas Simple Ways To Lower Weather Risk Somewhere between the “Nanny State” and “Every Man For Himself” is personal responsibility. When it comes to weather threats don’t count on the government or the media to save you. A healthy respect for weather goes a long way. Like going to the basement during a tornado warning. Investing in a $25 NOAA Weather Radio, the only thing that may wake you up at 3am if a tornado is approaching your house. Avoiding lakes, pools and beaches when thunder is audible. Staying hydrated during summer heat. Sunscreen to avoid skin...

May 13

Penn State: Fewer Atlantic Hurricanes in 2021 – Is Tornado Alley Shifting – Deepening Drought Western U.S.

Severe Threat Increases by Late May. A series of cool frontal passages predicted by NOAA’s GFS model may increase the threat of a few rough T-storms the last week of May with highs in the 70s to near 80F – whicle significant heat stretches from Texas to New England. Severe ClearCSPP GeoSphere 2021 Minnesota Fishing Opener Historical Facts. The Minnesota DNR always does a great job putting weather into context. No ice or flurries for the Opener this year: “Opening day temperatures have started as low as 24 degrees at International Falls (1996,2004), and sub-freezing conditions have even affected Minneapolis...

April 20

Who Has Seen “Tornado Emergencies” – Outlook: ENSO Neutral – What is “Probability of Precipitation”?

Ethan Sacoransky, Twitter Snowfall Trends. The latest (1991-2020) 30-year climate averages show an apparent increase in snowfall across New England (fueled by a consistently warmer, wetter coastal storms?) with a decrease in snowfall from the Plains into the southwestern USA.   Relatively Cool Start to May? Confidence levels are low this far out (they always are) but GFS guidance suggests a lingering closed low over the Great Lakes 2 weeks out, capable of keeping Minnesota under the influence of a north breeze the first week of May. ENSO PredictionsPhilip Klotzbach, Twitter U.S. Tornado EmergenciesBrady Walker, Twitter Praedictix Tornado Safety Tips....

January 12

Do You Live In One of America’s Riskiest Counties? Record 22 Billion-Dollar Disasters in 2020 Across USA

Header Photo Credit: Paul Douglas A Thaw, Then Accumulating Snow Late Week Minnesota sees its fair share of gasp-worthy weather, but don’t let anyone living in Miami, L.A. or Lincoln give you a hard time. According to FEMA’s National Risk Index, overall threats are greater across the central Plains (tornadoes), coastal areas (hurricanes), and some counties on the west coast, prone to both fire and quakes. Since 1991, January has been the snowiest month of the year for the Twin Cities and southern Minnesota. Across roughly the northern half of the state December is the snowiest month, according to climate analyst...