Tag: weather

High Water sign in flooded street, courtesy of NOAA
September 3

Ida’s Legacy: Historic Flood and Kansas-Size Tornadoes Paralyze Northeastern US

MN Drought Eases Slightly From Last WeekUS Drought Monitor Weather Extremes Trending More Extreme I’ve been tracking weather systems for 45 years, but nothing has prepared me for 2021’s dueling weather disasters. Our weather models have consistently underestimated the intensity of drought, fires and eastern floods. Why? Climate-warming greenhouse gases have doubled since preindustrial times, and these man-made gases are flavoring all weather now. Are too many people living in vulnerable areas? Yes. But Wednesday’s 1-in-500 year flooding from Philly to New York City and Texas-size tornadoes in New Jersey are more symptoms of our new reality. Flashes of Lukewarm....

Antarctica's Thwaites Glacier - Jeremy Harbeck, NASA
September 2

Top-10 Hottest Summers – Weather Disasters 4-5X More Common Than 1970s – 200 Year Flood and Kansas-Sized Tornadoes Reported from Philadelphia to New York City Suburbs

Climate Central 2021 Summer Heat Records. Climate Central has a good overview of a very hot summer for much of the USA: “Summer 2021 was definitely a “Summer of the Extremes” as floods, fires, drought, intense heat, and powerful storms ripped across the U.S. and the globe. Record or near-record heat baked the U.S. this summer, especially the Pacific Northwest. Climate Central conducted its own analysis on local heat records and found that 38% (538) of 1396 locations had one of their 10 hottest summers this year. Heat wasn’t the only extreme weather event this summer. Across the nation, many...

August 31

Soggy Remains of “Ida” Threaten Mid Atlantic with Severe Flooding – Climate’s Role in Rapid Hurricane Intensification

GFS 2-Week Jet Stream Forecast No Rush Into Autumn. I still suspect September will wind up milder than average with more 80s, possibly another shot at 90 degrees – and with any luck showers and storms will become a bit more frequent in the weeks to come. Inland Flooding Potential from “Ida”NOAA and Praedictix August 29, 2021 file image of Hurricane IdaNOAA and AerisWeather In the History of Hurricane Names, “I” Stands for Infamous. They come at the midpoint of the hurricane season when ocean water temperatures are warmest, capable of fueling the most intense hurricanes. A little interesting trivia...

storm over water via unsplash
August 31

Louisiana Left Reeling from “Ida” – Hurricane Strength Was No Surprise to Forecasters – Mandatory Fire Evacuations in Tahoe Basin

Paul Douglas Why September May Offer Year’s Best Weather ”September tries its best to have us forget summer” wrote English philosopher Bernard Williams. I love all the seasons (and the fact that Minnesota HAS 4 seasons) but September is my favorite month of the year. Days are still lukewarm, lakes warm enough for one or two more dips. Severe storms are rare as the noisy blur of summer fades into comfortable days with cotton-ball cumulus and low humidity. That is all fine and good but Minnesota is still too dry and dusty. According to the local DNR “As of this...

August 26

Flood Potential in the Middle of a Drought – USA’s Water Haves and Have-Nots?

Twin Cities National Weather Service A Risk of Flash Floods During a Drought ”Papa, tell me the story about the year we had floods during a drought?” Well Jordan, the year was 2021, and it was bone-dry. Parts of Minnesota were on fire. Farmer were worried, even the trees were stressed and losing their leaves early. And yes, we went from drought to flood in the meteorological blink of an eye. Strange? You bet. But I’ve seen rainbows after a tornado, rain the middle of a blizzard. Nothing surprises me much anymore. Excessive Rainfall/Flooding PotentialNOAA Nothing to See Here –...

August 25

NOAA Weather Radio: Cheapest Life Insurance Around – Anatomy of a Deadly Flash Flood in Tennessee

Cheap Life Insurance: NOAA Weather RadioPaul Douglas My NOAA Weather Radio Alarmed Me During the wee hours of Tuesday morning I was momentarily convinced we were under attack. Alarms blaring, a strobe light flashing in our bedroom. After unplugging the alarm clock it dawned on me that my NOAA Weather Radio was going off – for the first time in months. I’ve never been happier to see continuous lightning and hear rolling thunder, which sounded like artillery shells going off. 1-2 inches of rain soaked much of central and southern Minnesota and Wisconsin from a “meso-convective system”; a 200- mile-wide...

August 24

Deadly Flooding Legacy of “Henri” – Southwest USA’s Most Important River is Drying Up

At the end of the rainbow is a billboard?Paul Douglas Putting a Few Dents In Our Drought Mother Nature is extra-loopy this summer. Now that it’s late August the pattern looks like something I’d expect to see in early June: waves of warm fronts lapping north, each one accompanied by an outbreak of mostly nocturnal thunderstorms. There is a very good chance red blobs will freckle the Doppler today, again Friday, again Saturday night, followed by clearing on Sunday. I’m cautiously optimistic many thirsty lawns and fields will pick up 1-2 inches of rain today, but your results may vary....

August 17

Water Shortages Grow Across Southwestern USA – Top States for Wildfires – Natural Disasters Are…Political?

Precipitation Rank Since April 1 (1=driest on record)Minnesota DNR It’s Probably Best To Make No Assumptions The best assumption is to make no assumptions. This summer is proving to be an inflection point, a teachable moment on how climate flavors the weather.With water restrictions on the Colorado River many can’t assume water will come out when we turn the spigot. With conga lines of wildfires marching across the west throwing off massive smoke plumes we can’t assume skies will be blue and air will always be healthy to breathe. People take pictures of Lake Mead near Hoover Dam on Aug....

August 3

It’s Early To Be Tracking Smoke – Will “Drone Boats” Improve Hurricane Forecast Accuracy?

Paul Douglas Smoke, Heat & Drought? Welcome to Fresno! A friend living in Los Angeles told me that Californians don’t trust air they can’t see. I get it now. Remind me to never take a baby blue sky for granted again. Sadly, what happens in Ontario and Manitoba doesn’t stay in central Canada. Unusually dry weather is fanning an outbreak of blazes – drenching thunderstorms have been few and far between upwind, and that’s manifesting itself in a smoggy, smoky sky more typical of Beijing or New Delhi during the winter months. India with Lakes (and much better Scandinavian food)....

July 28

Dangerous Heat Indices – Toasty Olympics – Next Generation Wildfire Tracking Uses Satellites and AI

Heat Index Alert: Hottest Day of 2021? Based on predicted heat indices today will, in all probability, feel like the hottest day of the year. Unlike June, when we saw 90s (99F on June 5) with dry air, today’s upper 90s will be accompanied by a dew point in the 70s, making it feel as hot as 105-110F by late afternoon. Check on neighbors to make sure they are keeping cool. Don’t even consider leaving a child in a vehicle. In a matter of minutes on a day like today temperatures rise to 115-120F inside a car or truck. An...